What Risk Frontiers does

Risk Frontiers is a privately held Australian catastrophe risk modeling and climate risk consultancy founded in 1994, headquartered in St Leonards, NSW. It builds proprietary probabilistic natural hazard models covering bushfire (FireAUS), flood (FloodAUS), severe thunderstorm/hail (HailAUS), tropical cyclone (CyclAUS), earthquake (QuakeAUS), and New Zealand earthquake (QuakeNZ) perils, integrated via its proprietary Multi-Peril Workbench software platform. All models are climate-enabled, allowing clients to project losses under future emissions scenarios, and incorporate machine learning and high-resolution national datasets such as the National Flood Information Database covering 13.4 million Australian addresses developed jointly with Willis Re Australia.

The firm serves three primary enterprise segments: insurers and reinsurers (portfolio analysis, risk-based pricing, Probable Maximum Loss reporting for APRA regulatory capital); government bodies (disaster preparedness, policy development, resilience planning); and financial institutions (capital management, scenario analysis). Secondary segments include utilities, infrastructure operators, and emergency management agencies needing infrastructure exposure assessment and post-event impact forecasting. Revenue is generated through bespoke professional services engagements and licensing of its CAT models, with no public pricing.

Risk Frontiers operates primarily across Australia and New Zealand with growing activity in Japan, supported by formal data partnerships with Geoscience Australia, GNS Science, and the Bureau of Meteorology that provide authoritative inputs and build switching costs. The team is concentrated with PhD-qualified scientists across seismology, climate science, machine learning, and earthquake engineering. Recent product cadence (FloodAUS 4.0 in 2024, HailAUS 8.0 and FireAUS 4.0 in 2025) and expansion of near real-time loss estimation suggest an active product roadmap rather than a static advisory practice.

Name

Risk Frontiers

Legal name

Risk Frontiers Pty Ltd

Website

https://riskfrontiers.com

Company type

Private

Founded year

1994

Operating status

Operating

Headcount range

11–50 employees

Short description

Risk Frontiers is an Australian science-driven catastrophe risk modeling firm that builds proprietary probabilistic natural hazard models (bushfire, flood, cyclone, hail, earthquake) for insurers, reinsurers, governments, and financial institutions across Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.

Ownership category

akta.pro rank

Product category

Catastrophe Risk Modeling

NAICS

Environmental Consulting Services (541620)

akta.pro primary industry

Climate Hazard & Catastrophe Modeling (Flood, Wind, Wildfire, Heat, Sea-Level Rise) (EUABALAA)

akta.pro secondary industries

Catastrophe Modeling & Exposure Management (FSAOAIAB), Climate Risk Data & Benchmarking Services (Hazard Layers, Loss Databases, Indices/Scorecards) (EUABALAL), Risk Scoring, Hazard & Geospatial Analytics (FSAOAIAE), Asset- & Location-Level Exposure/Vulnerability Analytics (Geospatial, Digital Twins, Critical Infrastructure) (EUABALAC), Catastrophe Risk Modeling & Analytics Services (FSAOACAL), Climate Risk & Scenario Analysis (TCFD/IFRS S2) (EUAHAJAD)

Keywords

• Catastrophe risk modeling
• Natural hazard analytics
• Climate risk assessment
• Loss estimation software
• Disaster resilience consulting

Headquarters

HQ city

Sydney

HQ country

Australia

HQ region

Oceania

Offices1 record

Markets served

GTM type

B2B

Offering type

Software

Cost components

Personnel, Technology or R&D, Operations, Marketing or Sales, Infrastructure

Revenue model

1. Catastrophe Modeling Services: Risk Frontiers provides catastrophe modeling services to insurers, reinsurers, governments, and financial institutions to assess and quantify risks from natural hazards including bushfires, cyclones, floods, earthquakes, and hail. Services include portfolio analysis, risk-based pricing, and climate risk projections.
2. Climate Risk Analysis: Advanced climate risk analysis services helping organisations adapt, mitigate potential damages, and develop long-term resilience plans. Research-driven insights support proactive decision-making for industries facing environmental uncertainties.

Go-to-market motion1 record

Distribution channels1 record

Marketing channels5 records

Core offering

Risk Frontiers provides science-driven natural catastrophe loss modelling and climate risk analytics for Australia and New Zealand. Its core offerings are a suite of proprietary peril-specific catastrophe models (CyclAUS, FireAUS, FloodAUS, HailAUS, QuakeAUS, QuakeNZ) delivered through the Multi-Peril Workbench platform, complemented by climate risk analysis and resilience-building consulting services for insurers, reinsurers, governments and financial institutions.

Differentiator

Problem solved

Functional benefit

Brands

• CyclAUS: Detailed Australian tropical cyclone loss model.
• FireAUS
• FloodAUS
• HailAUS
• QuakeAUS
• QuakeNZ

Products and services

• CyclAUS Tropical Cyclone Loss Model Tropical cyclone loss model for Australia addressing multiple hazards (strong winds, heavy rainfall, flash-flooding, riverine flooding, storm surge, and coastal erosion), with climate-enabled projections under various emissions scenarios. Built for insurers, reinsurers and government agencies evaluating Australian cyclone exposure.
• FireAUS Bushfire Loss Model National bushfire and grassfire loss model for Australia using MODIS satellite data and machine learning to simulate stochastic fires at 1km resolution and estimate damage at 100m resolution across 50,000 simulation years. Trained on 120 years of fire damage data with dynamic fire propagation via cellular automata.
• FloodAUS Riverine Flood Loss Model National probabilistic riverine flood loss model covering 13.4 million addresses via the National Flood Information Database, with catchment correlations from 100+ years of rain gauge data and a semi-empirical vulnerability approach combining engineering studies and insurance claims data.
• HailAUS Hailstorm Loss Model Australian hailstorm loss model integrating statistical and physical modelling with Bureau of Meteorology radar data, ERA5 reanalysis, and PerilAUS claims data; corrects reporting biases and climate trends via a detrending approach using radar and observation data.
• QuakeAUS Australian Earthquake Loss Model National earthquake loss model for Australia using a spatially smoothed distribution of historical seismicity, Australia-specific ground motion prediction models, and Monte Carlo simulation to calculate Probable Maximum Losses (PML) for residential, commercial and industrial portfolios including soil liquefaction.
• QuakeNZ New Zealand Earthquake Loss Model National earthquake loss model for New Zealand implementing forecast models for crustal, slab and subduction interface earthquakes using GNS Science's National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM12), with Monte Carlo simulation to calculate PMLs throughout New Zealand.
• Climate Risk Analysis Climate risk analysis services helping organisations adapt to climate change, mitigate potential damages, and develop long-term resilience plans using research-driven insights for proactive decision-making in industries facing environmental uncertainties.
• Resilience Building Community and organisational resilience strategy services integrating science-backed data with real-world applications to build adaptive solutions that minimise disruption and enhance sustainability in the face of emerging climate challenges.
• Multi-Peril Workbench Platform Proprietary loss modelling software platform through which all Risk Frontiers natural catastrophe loss models are delivered to clients, embedding real-time loss estimation that ingests live Bureau of Meteorology forecast data and overlays hazards on portfolio data to provide near real-time loss distributions.

Quantifiable outcome

• Sydney 1999 hailstorm modeled as $5.5 billion insured loss in today's terms
• +2 more outcomes

Named customers3 records

Segments5 records

Ideal customer profiles4 records

Technology focussed Yes

API detail

Has API

No

API docs

API detail

Core technology

AI maturity

App detail

AI capability9 records

Feature6 records

Partnerships

Four partnerships are on record, tiered core.

• Willis Re AustraliacoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerRisk Frontiers and Willis Re Australia jointly developed the National Flood Information Database (NFID) for the Insurance Council of Australia, covering 13.4 million addresses with detailed flood risk data including Flood Exclusion Zones for lower-risk areas.
• Geoscience AustraliacoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerRisk Frontiers incorporated data from Geoscience Australia's National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18) into QuakeAUS, including the Australian Earthquake Catalogue, spatially smoothed seismicity model, and active fault source model. Staff participated in NSHA18 expert elicitation for model selection.
• GNS Science (New Zealand)coreStrategic or Co-development PartnerQuakeNZ incorporates data from GNS Science's National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM12), implementing earthquake forecast models for crustal, slab and subduction interface earthquakes in New Zealand.
• Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)coreTechnology or IntegrationHailAUS built upon Bureau of Meteorology's radar network and internal archives of historical hazard events, along with the PerilAUS database for severe thunderstorm modeling.

Scale indicators4 records

Recent moves6 records

Expansion highlights6 records

Direct peers

• Moody's RMS: Global leader in catastrophe risk modeling serving insurers and reinsurers with multi-peril models (earthquake, wind, flood). Direct competitor to Risk Frontiers, but with global scale versus Risk Frontiers' ANZ-focused specialization.
• Verisk (AIR Worldwide): Verisk's AIR Worldwide unit provides catastrophe modeling software and analytics across multiple perils globally. Competes directly with Risk Frontiers in CAT modeling but operates at much larger scale and broader geographic coverage.
• CoreLogic (Risk Solutions): Provides natural hazard and property risk analytics including flood, wildfire, and wind. Overlaps with Risk Frontiers' peril models and serves similar insurer and reinsurer customers across multiple geographies.
• JBA Risk Management: Specialist flood and catastrophe modeling firm serving insurers, governments, and financial institutions. Closest comparable in scope and customer type to Risk Frontiers' FloodAUS and broader CAT modeling services.
• KatRisk: Catastrophe modeling software provider for storm, flood, and wildfire risks. Competes with Risk Frontiers in providing probabilistic loss modeling to insurers and reinsurers, though with a US-centric footprint.

Broad incumbents

• Aon: Global reinsurance brokerage and advisory firm that produces and consumes catastrophe modeling outputs. Overlaps with Risk Frontiers as both a buyer of CAT analytics and a provider of risk advisory services to insurers.
• Guy Carpenter: Global reinsurance intermediary and advisory firm with deep CAT modeling expertise. Comparable in serving insurer/reinsurer risk-transfer needs but operates at much larger scale and broader scope than Risk Frontiers.
• Munich Re: Global reinsurer that develops internal CAT models and NatCatSERVICE analytics. Comparable as a producer of catastrophe risk insights, but Munich Re's models primarily serve its own underwriting rather than external clients.
• Swiss Re: Global reinsurer with proprietary catastrophe modeling capabilities and sigma research publications. Comparable in producing natural catastrophe risk analytics, primarily for internal underwriting and client advisory.

Others

• Bureau of Meteorology (Australia): Australian government agency providing authoritative meteorological and hydrological data used in Risk Frontiers' hail and flood models. Functions as a critical data provider rather than a direct competitor, but represents a potential alternative source of hazard analytics for government clients.

Market position

Strengths5 records

Weaknesses5 records

Competitive moat5 records

Key risks7 records

Key highlights7 records

Customer concentration

• LinkedInlinkedin.com/company/2710703
• Xx.com/RiskFrontiers

Revenue estimate

Valuation estimate

Number of profiles

Profiles10 records

Funding overview

Funding rounds

Investors

Funding detail is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →

M&A

Investments

M&A and investment is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →

Frequently asked questions about Risk Frontiers