Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis

What Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis does

The Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA) is a research centre based at the University of Melbourne's Parkville campus in Victoria, Australia, delivering quantitative biosecurity risk analysis, epidemiological modelling, and policy advice to government agencies. Originally established in 2006 as the Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA) and rebranded as CEBRA in 2013 under joint Australian-New Zealand government sponsorship, the centre operates with a multi-disciplinary team of approximately 18–25 research and professional staff spanning ecology, economics, mathematics, statistics, and expert judgement methodologies. Its primary government sponsors are the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) and the New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI), supplemented by infrastructure support from the Australian Research Data Commons (ARDC) and commissioned work from ACIAR, state-level agencies, and the Australian Plague Locust Commission.

CEBRA's core technical products form an integrated biosecurity analytics stack. The Australian Animal Disease Spread Model (AADIS) simulates livestock, vector-borne, and plant pest disease outbreaks and is used by DAFF and state agencies for outbreak response planning. Biosecurity Commons is a cloud-based national platform, hosted within CEBRA with ARDC support, that consolidates pest-risk models, surveillance data, environmental overlays, and analytical dashboards. The Value of Biosecurity System Model estimates the economic value of national biosecurity investments, with prior outputs of A$250 billion NPV over 30 years and A$314 billion over 50 years. Complementary tools include the Compliance-Based Inspection Scheme (CBIS) — operational across more than 70 DAFF product pathways and credited with saving 100,000+ inspection hours and A$18 million — the Intelligence-Based Information System (IBIS), and the Marine Pest Structural Risk Model. In February 2025, CEBRA consolidated its research approach into the Routledge-published book "Biosecurity: A Systems Perspective."

CEBRA's business model is grant-funded rather than commercial: it does not generate revenue from product licensing or subscriptions, with the most recent disclosed funding being an A$6.4 million three-year Commonwealth grant awarded in March 2025 (approximately A$2.1 million annually). Marginal revenue comes from one-time book sales via Routledge/Taylor & Francis with bulk-discount programmes. Go-to-market is relationship-led and direct: research is delivered via commissioned collaboration with government agencies, with reach extended through conferences, research publications, an active e-newsletter, LinkedIn, and a YouTube channel. CEBRA is not a separately incorporated entity; it operates within the University of Melbourne's institutional framework with governance provided by a board comprising government, academic, and independent representatives.

Name

Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis

Legal name

Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis

Website

https://cebra.unimelb.edu.au

Company type

Private

Founded year

2006

Operating status

Operating

Headcount range

11–50 employees

Short description

CEBRA is a University of Melbourne-affiliated research centre delivering quantitative biosecurity risk analysis, epidemiological modelling, and policy advice to Australian and New Zealand government agencies, funded primarily by government grants.

Ownership category

akta.pro rank

Headquarters

HQ city

Melbourne

HQ country

Australia

HQ region

Oceania

Offices1 record

Markets served

GTM type

B2B

Offering type

Services

Cost components

Personnel, Technology or R&D, Operations, Infrastructure, Marketing or Sales

Revenue model

1. Government Research Grants: CEBRA receives ongoing government funding from the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) and the New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI), with additional support from the University of Melbourne. In 2025, CEBRA received a $6.4 million government grant over three years.
2. Book Publications: Revenue generated from sale of the book 'Biosecurity: A Systems Perspective' published by Routledge/Taylor & Francis, with discount codes available for bulk purchases (30% with ADC25, 35% with ANZBULK24 for 5+ copies).

Pricing tiers

Go-to-market motion1 record

Distribution channels2 records

Marketing channels6 records

Core offering

CEBRA is a research centre that delivers evidence-based biosecurity risk analysis, modelling, and policy advice to government agencies. Its core offerings include the Biosecurity Commons national analytics platform, the Value of Biosecurity System bio-economic model, the AADIS epidemiological spread model, and specialist tools such as CBIS and IBIS, supported by commissioned research projects and a published book synthesising its research approach.

Product overview

CEBRA is a research center (not a commercial product company) that develops and delivers analytical platforms, modeling tools, and research frameworks for biosecurity risk analysis. The core offerings center on the Biosecurity Commons platform (the national biosecurity risk analysis infrastructure), the Value of Biosecurity System Model (bio-economic simulation for valuing biosecurity investment), and the AADIS epidemiological model (disease/plant pest spread simulation). These are complemented by specialized tools including CBIS (compliance-based inspection), the Marine Pest Structural Risk Model, and IBIS intelligence system. CEBRA also published the book 'Biosecurity: A Systems Perspective' synthesizing its research approach. The products work together as an integrated ecosystem: Biosecurity Commons serves as the data and analytics hub, while AADIS and the Value Model provide specific modeling capabilities that can be deployed on the platform for government decision-makers.

Differentiator

Problem solved

Functional benefit

Brands

• Biosecurity Commons: A ground-breaking platform for modelling and analysing biosecurity risk and response, hosted within CEBRA and supported by the Australian Research Data Commons (ARDC). It is a national platform for researchers and decision-makers to assess biosecurity risk and design effective surveillance and control programs.
• Biosecurity: A Systems Perspective
• AADIS (Australian Animal Disease Spread Model)

Products and services

• Biosecurity Commons Platform Cloud-based national platform for modelling and analysing biosecurity risk and response, enabling government agencies and researchers to assess pest and disease risk and design surveillance and control programs.
• Value of Biosecurity System Model Bio-economic simulation model that estimates the total value of Australia's biosecurity system by simulating pest/disease arrivals, spread, and cumulative economic impacts, with previous estimates of A$314 billion in 50-year net present value.
• Australian Animal Disease Spread Model (AADIS) Epidemiological modelling system that simulates the spread and control of animal diseases (including foot-and-mouth disease, African swine fever, and lumpy skin disease) and plant pests across Australia in three modes: livestock disease, vector-borne disease, and plant pest.
• Compliance-Based Inspection Scheme (CBIS) Risk-based border intervention scheme developed with DAFF that uses compliance history to qualify importers for reduced inspection, implemented across more than 70 product pathways and estimated to have saved over 100,000 inspection hours and A$18 million.
• IBIS (Intelligence-Based Information System) Intelligence research tool that helps biosecurity managers foresee new threats through structured analytical techniques and expert judgment aggregation.
• Marine Pest Structural Risk Model Statistical likelihood-based methodology for assessing the relative likelihood of non-indigenous marine species entry and establishment at ports and marinas, used to optimise the Marine High-Risk Site Surveillance Programme for New Zealand.
• Portfolio Allocation Framework Risk-return methodology for determining optimal investment in biosecurity measures across pathways, designed to identify the best return on investment for pre-border capacity building in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Biosecurity: A Systems Perspective (Book) Book published by Routledge/Taylor & Francis providing a comprehensive overview of the biosecurity continuum drawing from over a decade of CEBRA research across statistics, ecology, mathematics, economics, veterinary science, human medicine, and sociology.

Quantifiable outcome

• Average return of $30 for every dollar invested in Australia's biosecurity system (50-year net present value of $314 billion)
• +2 more outcomes

Named customers4 records

Segments3 records

Ideal customer profiles2 records

Technology focussed Yes

API detail

Has API

No

API docs

API detail

Core technology

AI maturity

App detail

Integration4 records

AI capability8 records

Feature4 records

Partnerships

Ten partnerships are on record, tiered core, major and minor.

• University of MelbournecoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerHost institution for CEBRA, providing academic infrastructure, research facilities, and administrative support. CEBRA is based in the School of Biosciences and School of Mathematics and Statistics.
• Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF)coreStrategic or Co-development PartnerPrimary Australian government sponsor providing ongoing funding and research collaboration. Jointly supports CEBRA alongside MPI to strengthen national biosecurity efforts.
• New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI)coreStrategic or Co-development PartnerJoint government sponsor alongside DAFF, supporting trans-Tasman biosecurity research collaboration. Engaged in multiple research projects including valuation of New Zealand's biosecurity system.
• Australian Plague Locust Commission (APLC)majorStrategic or Co-development PartnerCollaboration to enhance APLC's monitoring and forecasting system to a real-time online platform for predicting and mapping regional locust risks across NSW, Queensland, Victoria, and South Australia.
• Australian Research Data Commons (ARDC)majorTechnology or IntegrationSupports the Biosecurity Commons platform hosted within CEBRA. ARDC funding enables development of national research infrastructure for biosecurity risk analysis.
• Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR)majorStrategic or Co-development PartnerCommissioned work on evaluating ACIAR's biosecurity activities in the Indo-Pacific region and assessing capacity building investments.
• Queensland Department of Primary IndustriesmajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerCollaborates through the Cooperative Surveillance (CoSurv) project using Biosecurity Commons to integrate field and lab data into risk-assessment frameworks.
• Cawthron Institute (NZ)minorStrategic or Co-development PartnerProvides risk assessment expertise for aquaculture biosecurity modelling and marine pest risk analysis.
• Biosecurity TasmaniamajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerCommissioned independent review of Tasmania's border biosecurity policies, leading to significant government funding allocation following CEBRA recommendations.
• Biosecurity Commons EcosystemcoreTechnology or IntegrationNational platform enabling collaboration across local councils, state authorities, and Commonwealth agencies. Current users include Queensland DPI, with expanding adoption across biosecurity sector.

Scale indicators7 records

Recent moves6 records

Expansion highlights6 records

Broad incumbents

• CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation): Australia's national science agency, operating across biosecurity, agriculture, and environmental research. Directly comparable as a publicly-funded multidisciplinary research institution delivering modeling and policy advice to Australian government agencies, though at much larger scale.
• ICF International: International consulting firm providing research, analytics, and advisory services to government and commercial clients. Comparable as a quantitative risk modeling and policy advisory provider with significant government contract revenue.
• RAND Corporation: Global policy research organization providing analytical, modeling, and advisory services to governments. Comparable in mission (evidence-based government research) and revenue model (government grants and contracts), though operating across many policy domains rather than specializing in biosecurity.
• ERM (Environmental Resources Management): Global environmental consulting firm offering environmental impact assessment, risk analysis, and regulatory advisory. Comparable in providing environmental and biosecurity-adjacent consulting services, but operating as a commercial consultancy rather than a government-funded research center.

Direct peers

• ABARES (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences): The Australian government's economic and scientific research arm within DAFF. ABARES produces biosecurity economic analysis and risk assessments and is CEBRA's primary sponsor-side counterpart; the two often collaborate, with CEBRA providing the quantitative modeling and ABARES integrating outputs into policy.
• Eco Logical Australia: Australian environmental consulting firm specializing in ecological assessment, biosecurity, and invasive species management. Comparable as a domestic provider of environmental and biosecurity analytical services, though operating as a commercial consultancy rather than a research center.
• Plant & Food Research (New Zealand): New Zealand Crown Research Institute delivering plant-based biosecurity and primary industry research. Comparable in delivering applied biosecurity science for government sponsors in the trans-Tasman region, with overlapping expertise in pest risk modeling.
• Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research: New Zealand Crown Research Institute conducting biosecurity, ecology, and environmental research. Mirrors CEBRA's role on the New Zealand side, particularly in invasive species and ecosystem risk analysis, and is a natural comparator for trans-Tasman biosecurity research delivery.
• Centre for Invasive Species Solutions (CISS): Australian research-focused entity addressing invasive species threats to agriculture and environment. Dr Bruce Christie (Chair) sits on CEBRA's advisory board, evidencing close alignment on pest/disease research and parallel funding relationships with DAFF.

Regional players

• Risk Frontiers (Macquarie University): Australia-based natural hazard and risk analysis research center hosted at Macquarie University. Operates a similar university-affiliated research center model with multi-disciplinary risk modeling, focused on natural perils rather than biosecurity.

Market position

Strengths4 records

Weaknesses4 records

Competitive moat5 records

Key risks5 records

Key highlights6 records

Customer concentration

• YouTubeyoutube.com/channel/UC7sqh6I8Gn-BpgyJD146t0g
• LinkedInlinkedin.com/company/cebrauom

Revenue estimate

Valuation estimate

Number of profiles

Profiles9 records

Funding overview

Funding rounds

Investors

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M&A

Investments

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Frequently asked questions about Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis