What Cascade Institute does

Cascade Institute is a Canadian non-profit research centre founded in 2020 and headquartered in Victoria, British Columbia, with a Geothermal Energy Office in Ottawa. It operates in partnership with Royal Roads University and is led by Executive Director Thomas Homer-Dixon. The institute applies complexity science to study interconnected global crises (its "polycrisis" framing) and to identify high-leverage intervention points across climate, energy, democratic, and economic systems.

The institute runs five core research programs — Polycrisis, Permafrost Carbon, Revitalizing and Defending Democracy, Scale-Up and Acceleration, and Ultradeep Geothermal — supported by proprietary analytical frameworks (the Stress-Trigger-Crisis Model, Cross-Impact Balance matrix) and tools such as the Ideological Priors Inventory, Valence Mapping Tool, Polycrisis Community Map, Causal Loop Diagrams Handbook, and the InterPIGNN machine-learning algorithm used in the Canadian Thermal Model. Recent publications include the Deep Heat Advantage techno-economic analysis of enhanced geothermal systems, the Global Systemic Stresses report, and policy reports on AI risk for financial institutions and Indigenous data sovereignty in geothermal exploration.

Cascade does not sell products or services. Its revenue model is project-based and grant-based: it is funded through government partnerships — notably Natural Resources Canada — and held the secretariat role for the Government of Canada–backed Canadian Deep Geothermal Roadmap as of June 2026. It also maintains research and industry alliances with Seequent, 400C Energy, INRS, Simon Fraser University, the Geological Survey of Canada, Geothermal Canada, the Alberta Government, and the Global Risk Institute. Its customers are federal and provincial governments, the academic and research community, and the energy industry; it engages them through peer-reviewed papers, op-eds, newsletters, conferences, and direct policy briefings.

Name

Cascade Institute

Legal name

Cascade Institute

Website

https://cascadeinstitute.org

Company type

Private

Founded year

2020

Operating status

Operating

Headcount range

1–10 employees

Short description

Cascade Institute is a Canadian non-profit research centre that applies complexity science to study interconnected global crises and identify high-leverage interventions, primarily serving federal and provincial governments through funded research programs in polycrisis, geothermal energy, permafrost, and democracy.

Ownership category

akta.pro rank

Product category

Policy Research and Analysis

NAICS

Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities (54172), Scientific Research and Development Services (5417), Environmental Consulting Services (54162), Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences (except Nanotechnology and Biotechnology) (541715)

SIC

Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research (8731)

akta.pro primary industry

Climate Risk & Scenario Analysis (TCFD/IFRS S2) (EUAHAJAD)

akta.pro secondary industries

Sustainability & ESG Consulting (BPAHACAK), Incentives, Subsidies & Tax Policy (ITC/PTC, FiTs, Auctions/CfDs) (EUAMANAE)

Keywords

• Complexity science research
• Polycrisis analysis
• Geothermal energy research
• Policy research consulting
• System mapping analysis

Headquarters

HQ city

Victoria

HQ country

Canada

HQ region

North America

Offices3 records

Markets served

GTM type

B2B

Offering type

Services

Cost components

Personnel, Technology or R&D, Operations, Marketing or Sales, Others

Revenue model

1. Government Funding: Core funding from government sources including federal departments like Natural Resources Canada for research programs and initiatives
2. Research Grants and Contracts: Project-based funding from government agencies and international organizations for specific research initiatives

Go-to-market motion1 record

Distribution channels1 record

Marketing channels5 records

Core offering

Cascade Institute is a Canadian non-profit research centre that conducts complexity-based research and analysis on interconnected global crises (the "polycrisis") and identifies high-leverage intervention strategies. It runs research programs on polycrisis, ultradeep geothermal energy, permafrost carbon, democracy, and scale-up, and develops proprietary analytical frameworks (such as the Stress-Trigger-Crisis Model and Cross-Impact Balance matrix) and tools used by governments and industry partners.

Product overview

Cascade Institute is a Canadian research centre offering a portfolio of research programs and analytical tools focused on addressing urgent and complex global problems. The core offerings include five interconnected research programs: Polycrisis (studying compounding global crises), Ultradeep Geothermal (clean energy technology), Permafrost Carbon (Arctic climate interventions), Democracy (polarization and governance), and Scale-Up (accelerating positive change). Supporting these programs are specialized analytical tools including the Ideological Priors Inventory (IPI), Valence Mapping Tool, Polycrisis Community Map, and Causal Loop Diagrams Handbook. The Institute also produces technical research publications including the Canadian Thermal Model, Groundwork regulatory guidelines, Deep Heat Advantage techno-economic analyses, and Global Systemic Stresses reports. The research approach is grounded in complexity science, using system mapping, cross-impact balance modeling, and stress-trigger-crisis frameworks to identify high-leverage interventions.

Differentiator

Problem solved

Functional benefit

Products and services

• Polycrisis Research Program A research program studying the tangled web of compounding climate, energy, economic, and geopolitical crises, identifying high-leverage interventions that can ripple outward to address multiple problems at once. Targeted at governments and policy institutions.
• Ultradeep Geothermal Program A research program examining how breakthrough subsurface technologies can help Canada deliver clean, firm power at scale, including enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) and advanced geothermal systems (AGS). Targeted at federal/provincial governments and the energy industry.
• Permafrost Carbon Program A research program focused on permafrost carbon dynamics and interventions to slow or stop permafrost thaw and reduce resulting emissions. Aimed at climate policy and Arctic research stakeholders.
• Democracy Program Program focused on revitalizing and defending democracy, analyzing factors driving social polarization and developing strategic frameworks for building democratic resilience.
• Scale-Up and Acceleration Program Program focused on identifying and implementing high-leverage interventions to accelerate positive systemic change.
• Canadian Thermal Model A comprehensive national mapping of geothermal resources using novel machine learning methods, developed in partnership with Seequent, 400C Energy, INRS, and Simon Fraser University to provide a nationwide view of subsurface heat. For governments and energy industry partners.
• Groundwork: Regulatory Guidelines Report A report providing practical guidelines that provinces can adopt or adapt for geothermal regulations, offering a blueprint for regulatory harmonization across Canada. Audience: provincial and federal regulators.
• Deep Heat Advantage Report Techno-economic analysis of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) in western and northwestern Canada, modeling costs at four hypothetical test sites and showing EGS can compete with nuclear and gas peaker plants. Audience: energy industry and policymakers.
• Global Systemic Stresses Report Report tracking fourteen global systemic stresses that create systemic risks and contribute to the polycrisis, examining pressures, contradictions, and vulnerabilities. Developed in partnership with the Global Risk Institute for financial sector leaders, regulators, and policymakers.

Quantifiable outcome

• Enhanced geothermal systems can achieve LCOE of 3-6¢/kWh in western Canada with continued innovation
• +1 more outcomes

Named customers3 records

Segments3 records

Ideal customer profiles4 records

Technology focussed Yes

API detail

Has API

No

API docs

API detail

Core technology

AI maturity

App detail

Feature5 records

Partnerships

Ten partnerships are on record, tiered flagship and core.

• SeequentflagshipStrategic or Co-development Partner · 8 June 2026Partnership to develop the Canadian Thermal Model - a comprehensive national mapping of geothermal resources using Seequent's Oasis montaj geophysics software and InterPIGNN machine learning. Announced at World Geothermal Congress 2026 in Calgary.
• 400C EnergycoreStrategic or Co-development Partner · 8 June 2026Research partner in the Canadian Thermal Model initiative working on geothermal resource assessment.
• Royal Roads UniversitycoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerPrimary partner institution providing institutional affiliation and hosting the Cascade Institute. Located in Victoria, BC where several researchers are based.
• INRS (Institut national de la recherche scientifique)coreStrategic or Co-development PartnerResearch partner in the Canadian Thermal Model initiative for geothermal mapping.
• Simon Fraser UniversitycoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerAcademic partner in the Canadian Thermal Model initiative collaborating on geothermal resource analysis.
• Government of CanadaflagshipStrategic or Co-development PartnerPrimary funder and partner. Cascade Institute serves as secretariat for the Canadian Deep Geothermal Roadmap project supported by the Government of Canada. Natural Resources Canada is a key partner on geothermal research.
• Alberta GovernmentcoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerCollaboration on geothermal development including the Alberta Drilling Accelerator ($50M pledge). Premier Danielle Smith's government working with Cascade on national geothermal roadmap.
• Geological Survey of Canada Pacific DivisioncoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerGovernment research partner contributing to geothermal resource mapping and analysis.
• Geothermal CanadaflagshipStrategic or Co-development PartnerIndustry association co-hosting the 2026 World Geothermal Congress with Cascade Institute's Emily Smejkal as Vice President.
• Global Risk InstitutecoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerPartnership on the Global Systemic Stresses report providing insights for financial sector leaders, regulators, and policymakers.

Scale indicators5 records

Recent moves6 records

Expansion highlights6 records

Broad incumbents

• Rocky Mountain Institute: An independent energy systems transformation organization working on clean energy, climate, and industrial decarbonization. Comparable to Cascade's clean-energy mission and systems analysis approach, but operating globally with a larger team.
• RAND Corporation: A much larger, established policy research organization conducting interdisciplinary analysis for governments on global risks, security, and complex systems. Comparable in mission but with vastly greater scale, geographic reach, and topic breadth.
• National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL): A US Department of Energy national laboratory conducting applied research on renewable energy and energy efficiency, including geothermal technologies. Comparable to Cascade on energy research depth but with vastly greater scale and government backing.
• Brookings Institution: A large US public policy organization producing research across economic, energy, climate, and governance domains. Comparable to Cascade's policy-research orientation but with substantially broader topic coverage and institutional resources.

Direct peers

• C.D. Howe Institute: Canada's flagship independent policy think tank producing research on energy, economic, and public policy. Comparable as a Canadian policy research outlet influencing federal and provincial decision-makers, though less focused on complexity science and more on economic policy.
• Pembina Institute: A Canadian clean-energy policy think tank focused on energy transition, climate solutions, and regulatory frameworks. Closely comparable to Cascade on the energy/policy side, particularly its work on geothermal regulation and provincial energy roadmaps.
• Stockholm Resilience Centre: A leading academic research centre on resilience and complex adaptive systems that, like Cascade, studies cross-domain global stresses and polycrisis dynamics using complexity-science methods. Directly comparable in intellectual framework, even though Stockholm focuses more on planetary boundaries than on Canadian energy policy.
• Clean Energy Canada: A Canadian clean-energy policy organization producing research on the energy transition, including policy and techno-economic analysis. Directly comparable to Cascade's energy-focused research outputs and government-engagement model.
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: An interdisciplinary research institute applying systems analysis and integrated assessment modeling to climate and socioeconomic tipping points. Highly comparable to Cascade's polycrisis and climate risk methodology, and similarly oriented toward translating complexity science into policy advice.

Regional players

• International Geothermal Association: An international industry association promoting geothermal energy globally. Comparable as a geothermal convening and policy-influence body, though operating as an industry association rather than a research institute and based in Europe rather than North America.

Market position

Strengths5 records

Weaknesses5 records

Competitive moat4 records

Key risks6 records

Key highlights6 records

Customer concentration

• LinkedInlinkedin.com/company/cascade-institute
• Instagraminstagram.com/thecascadeinstitute

Revenue estimate

Valuation estimate

Number of profiles

Profiles8 records

Funding overview

Funding rounds

Investors

Funding detail is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →

M&A

Investments

M&A and investment is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →

Frequently asked questions about Cascade Institute