Good Judgment
Good Judgment Inc provides subscription-based professional probabilistic forecasting (Superforecasting) to enterprises, governments, and NGOs, leveraging a vetted global network of ~200 elite forecasters and proprietary aggregation algorithms to deliver early, quantified insight on geopolitical, economic, and public health questions.
- Company typePrivate
- Founded2015
- HeadquartersNew York, United States
- Headcount11–50
- GTM typeB2B
- OfferingServices
What Good Judgment does
Good Judgment Inc, founded in 2015 as the commercial successor to the IARPA-funded Good Judgment Project (2011-2015), provides professional probabilistic forecasting services built on a scientifically validated methodology called Superforecasting. The company operates a global network of approximately 200 vetted Superforecasters (the top 2% of thousands of forecasters identified through a decade of performance tracking) who generate probability-weighted predictions on geopolitical, economic, technological, and public health questions. Headquartered in New York, the company operates with 11-50 employees and supports a wider contract-based expert network across six continents.
The core product is FutureFirst™, a subscription-based 24/7 monitoring service providing daily forecast updates, qualitative Superforecaster commentary, email alerts, API downloads, and summary reports. Adjacent offerings include Custom Superforecasts (bespoke forecasting retainers on client-specific questions), Superforecasting Workshops and Online Training (public, private, and Level II Advanced Judgment & Modeling), the public Good Judgment Open platform for talent discovery and team training, the FAST aptitude screening tool, and the Delphineo collaboration tool. Sub-branded topical dashboards cover US politics and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Proprietary technology centers on talent-spotting algorithms and state-of-the-art aggregation methods developed in partnership with the University of Pennsylvania (Tetlock, Mellers) and INSEAD.
Good Judgment generates revenue primarily through annual enterprise subscriptions (FutureFirst), bespoke custom forecasting engagements, and training/workshop programs, all priced on a quote basis. The go-to-market is enterprise direct sales supplemented by a strategic channel partnership with ForgeFront for UK government access via the Futures Procurement Network. Customer segments span financial services (Man Group, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Oak Tree Capital, Barings, NNIP), government (US State Department, US Army, US Air Force, UK Government), NGOs and nonprofits (UN OCHA, GiveWell, Open Philanthropy, Forethought Foundation, adelphi, CNAS), energy companies, and academic institutions (Wharton, Harvard Kennedy School). The company is privately held, founder-controlled, and bootstrapped with no disclosed institutional funding.
Good Judgment firmographics
Firmographics- Name
- Good Judgment
- Legal name
- Good Judgment Inc.
- Website
- https://goodjudgment.com
- Company type
- Private
- Founded year
- 2015
- Operating status
- Operating
- Headcount range
- 11–50 employees
- Short description
- Good Judgment Inc provides subscription-based professional probabilistic forecasting (Superforecasting) to enterprises, governments, and NGOs, leveraging a vetted global network of ~200 elite forecasters and proprietary aggregation algorithms to deliver early, quantified insight on geopolitical, economic, and public health questions.
- Ownership category
- akta.pro rank
Good Judgment industry classification
Industry- Product category
- Predictive Forecasting Services
- NAICS
- Other Scientific and Technical Consulting Services (54169)
- SIC
- Services-Management Services (8741)
- akta.pro primary industry
- Psychometric Test Publishing & Norming / Validation Services (BPACAMAG)
Keywords
Where Good Judgment is headquartered
LocationHeadquarters
- HQ city
- New York
- HQ country
- United States
- HQ region
- North America
Offices1 record
Markets served
Good Judgment business model
Business model- GTM type
- B2B
- Offering type
- Services
- Cost components
- Personnel, Technology or R&D, Operations, Marketing or Sales, Infrastructure
Revenue model
- FutureFirst Subscription: Subscription-based monitoring service providing 24/7 access to daily updated forecasts on major geopolitical, economic, technological, and public health questions with Superforecaster commentary and analysis.
- Custom Superforecasts: Bespoke forecasting reports on client-specific questions where Good Judgment recruits a core group of Superforecasters to provide tailored insights, with follow-up questions and detailed perspective capabilities.
- Training & Workshops: Revenue from private workshops (virtual or in-person), public workshops, self-paced online training courses, and advanced judgment & modeling sessions.
- Good Judgment Open Platform: Public forecasting platform where organizations can sponsor challenges, engage crowds on topics, and identify talent through performance metrics.
Pricing tiers
| Model | Billing | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Subscription | Annual | FutureFirst subscription for professional Superforecaster insights |
| Subscription | Multi-year contract | Public Workshop - Two-Day Superforecasting Workshop |
| Subscription | Multi-year contract | Advanced Judgment & Modeling Training |
| Subscription | Monthly | Online Training - Self-paced Superforecasting Fundamentals |
Go-to-market motion3 records
Distribution channels5 records
Marketing channels11 records
Good Judgment product offering
Product offeringCore offering
Good Judgment delivers probabilistic forecasting and decision-support services built on its proprietary Superforecasting methodology, leveraging a vetted global network of elite forecasters. Its core subscription product, FutureFirst, provides 24/7 access to daily updated forecasts on geopolitical, economic, technological, and public health questions, supplemented by bespoke Custom Superforecasts for client-specific questions, training workshops, and a public forecasting platform.
Product overview
Good Judgment offers a platform-plus-modules architecture centered on Superforecasting®, a scientifically-validated crowd-sourced forecasting methodology. The core offering is FutureFirst™ (24/7 monitoring tool with professional Superforecaster insights) supplemented by Custom Superforecasts (bespoke client-specific forecasts) and Superforecaster® Analytics. Additional modules include Training & Workshops (Private, Public, Online, and Advanced), the Good Judgment Open public forecasting platform, the Forecasting Aptitude Screening Tool (FAST), and the Delphineo™ collaboration tool. Specialized topical dashboards (Superforecasting® US Politics, Superforecasting® Ukraine) extend FutureFirst for focused coverage. UK Government Services provides dedicated access through the Futures Procurement Network partnership.
Differentiator
Problem solved
Functional benefit
Brands
- FutureFirst™: A monitoring tool providing 24/7 access to timely insights and commentary on major events from professional Superforecasters.
- Superforecasting®
- Good Judgment Open
- Delphineo™
Products and services
- FutureFirst Subscription-based monitoring service providing 24/7 access to daily updated forecasts and qualitative commentary from professional Superforecasters on dozens of geopolitical, economic, technological, and public health questions, including email alerts for meaningful forecast changes, API downloads, and summary reports with reasoning.
- Custom Superforecasts Bespoke forecasting service leveraging the collective wisdom of professional Superforecasters for client-specific strategic questions. A core group of Superforecasters posts probability estimates, shares sources and rationales, debates interpretations, and updates forecasts as new information emerges, with follow-up questions and detailed perspective capabilities.
- Online Training Self-paced online Superforecasting Fundamentals course co-developed with Prof. Phil Tetlock, providing foundational skills in probabilistic reasoning, cognitive biases, inside vs outside views, base rate setting, and calibration. Three-module course with 30-day money-back guarantee and a Certificate of Completion.
- Private Workshops Customized virtual or in-person Superforecasting workshops for organizations, with structure tailored to the schedule and training needs of strategists and analysts. Workshops are led by training professionals and elite Superforecasters.
- Public Superforecasting Workshops Public two-day interactive workshops introducing Superforecasting techniques, open to individuals and organizations with scheduled dates (e.g., 14 & 15 July 2026). Includes government, NGO, and student discount rates.
- Advanced Judgment & Modeling Advanced three-hour online training session for workshop graduates covering setting decision thresholds, base rate modeling, multinomial questions and cluster modeling, practical applications, and integrating AI into the Superforecasting process.
- Good Judgment Open Public forecasting platform (gjopen.com) where organizations can sponsor challenges, engage the crowd on topics, and identify talent through performance metrics. Offers tailored public or private tournaments, recruitment evaluation tools, and personalized feedback reports for individuals and groups.
- Forecasting Aptitude Screening Tool (FAST) Analytical performance assessment tool that evaluates individuals on pattern recognition, actively open-minded thinking, and cognitive reflection, providing scores and feedback for identifying forecasting talent in organizations.
- Delphineo Web-based, mobile-friendly collaboration tool combining a modified Delphi forecasting method with new techniques from co-founder Phil Tetlock's research, enabling groups to achieve process gain through estimate-talk-estimate cycles with anonymous commentary.
- Superforecasting US Politics Topical dashboard subset of FutureFirst focused on US policy questions under the new administration. Available for a limited time with daily updated forecasts and summary reports.
- Superforecasting Ukraine Dashboard of key questions about the future of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its implications. Subset of the FutureFirst dashboard available for a limited time with daily updated forecasts and special reports.
- UK Government Services Partnership with ForgeFront, a Futures Procurement Network vendor, providing UK government entities easy access to Superforecasting tools and services through the UK Government's Futures Procurement Network framework.
Quantifiable outcome
- 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information
- +7 more outcomes
Companies that use Good Judgment
Customer profileNamed customers18 records
Segments4 records
Ideal customer profiles4 records
Good Judgment technology and API
TechnologyTechnology focussed Yes
API detail
- Has API
- Yes
- API docs
- API detail
Core technology
AI maturity
App detail
AI capability3 records
Feature5 records
Good Judgment partnerships and signals
Strategic signalPartnerships
Ten partnerships are on record, tiered core and minor.
- ForgeFrontcoreStrategic partner awarded place on UK Government's Futures Procurement Network. ForgeFront provides easy access for UK government and public sector organizations to Good Judgment's Superforecasting services. The framework runs until June 2026 and is led by the Government Office for Science.
- IARPA (Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity)coreFunded the original Good Judgment Project (2011-2015), a massive geopolitical forecasting competition. The research identified Superforecasters and established the scientific methodology. IARPA is the US intelligence community's equivalent to DARPA.
- GiveWell and Open PhilanthropyminorGenerously supported the Superforecasting AI Governance project (April-May 2025) and Superforecasting Global Health Funding project (March 2025), providing funding for research on AI safety and US government international health funding.
- Forethought FoundationminorPartnered with Good Judgment to forecast how rising global temperatures will impact critical issues like drought, floods, food availability, and severe weather events. Project launched with William MacAskill's book 'What We Owe The Future'.
- adelphiminorTeamed up with Good Judgment for the Weathering Risk initiative, using Superforecaster track record to convert uncertainty of geopolitics amidst climate crisis into manageable risks for G7 governments.
- Center for New American Security (CNAS)minorCollaborated on a case study examining how the US Department of State's Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs used Good Judgment forecasting to inform decisions on supporting Colombia's coca eradication efforts.
- University of Pennsylvania (Tetlock and Mellers)coreCo-founders Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers led the Good Judgment Project at UPenn, establishing the research foundation. Tetlock continues as co-founder of Good Judgment Inc and co-developed the online training course.
- INSEADminorProfessor Ville Satopää collaborated with Good Judgment on research published in peer-reviewed journals, including the 'Wisdom of the Coherent' paper on improving forecast aggregation through coherence-weighted methods.
- Wharton, University of PennsylvaniaminorWharton collaboration with Good Judgment to forecast electric-vehicle innovations. CEO Warren Hatch is a Wharton PhD graduate. Barb Mellers is a Wharton professor.
- Dubai Future FoundationminorDubai Future Experts Program, launched in partnership with The Executive Council of Dubai, uses FAST as a comprehensive tool for program recruitment, followed by intensive Superforecaster training from Good Judgment.
Scale indicators10 records
Recent moves6 records
Expansion highlights7 records
Good Judgment competitors and assessment
Company assessmentDirect peers
- Polymarket: Crypto-based prediction market that lets users trade on outcomes of geopolitical, economic, and public events. Directly competes with Good Judgment in probabilistic forecasting, and Good Judgment has explicitly benchmarked against Polymarket (0.124 vs 0.154 Brier score).
- Kalshi: CFTC-regulated US prediction market for event outcomes (economics, policy, weather, elections). Overlaps directly with Good Judgment's forecasting-as-a-service and is increasingly cited in the same media coverage about the future of forecasting.
- Metaculus: Public forecasting platform that aggregates forecasts from a community of predictors on questions spanning geopolitics, economics, technology, and biosecurity. Closest direct analogue to Good Judgment Open (GJ Open) and a competing destination for forecasting talent.
- PredictIt: Academic-affiliated prediction market focused on political and policy outcomes. Targets the same political/policy forecasting demand that Good Judgment serves through its US Politics and FutureFirst dashboards.
- Rhombus Power: Geopolitical risk and forecasting firm serving national security, defense, and corporate clients with predictive intelligence on political and security issues. Competes for the same enterprise and government strategic-foresight budget as Good Judgment's Custom Superforecasts.
Emerging players
- Primer.ai: AI-native platform for intelligence analysts and government users that automates information monitoring and entity/event extraction. Emerges as a partial substitute for the manual research layer behind Superforecasting, especially for defense and intelligence customers.
- Morning Consult: Global research and intelligence firm offering proprietary economic, political, and consumer forecasting derived from its own polling infrastructure. Competes for some of the same financial-services and corporate demand for predictive insight.
Broad incumbents
- RAND Corporation: Long-established policy research institution that produces forecasting, scenario analysis, and strategic foresight for the US government. Competes for strategic foresight budget, especially in defense/intelligence, but does not operate a subscription forecasting product.
- CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies): Bipartisan US policy think tank producing geopolitical analysis and forecasting for government and the private sector. Overlaps on government clientele and has even published case studies featuring Good Judgment's forecasting work.
Regional players
- Hypermind: Europe-based prediction market and forecasting platform serving EU clients with market-based and expert-driven forecasts. Comparable offering to GJ Open and FutureFirst but with primary focus on European markets and regulations.
Market position
Strengths5 records
Weaknesses4 records
Competitive moat5 records
Key risks5 records
Key highlights7 records
Customer concentration
Good Judgment social profiles
Digital presenceGood Judgment compliance and trust
Trust signalCompliance1 record
Good Judgment financial estimates
Financial estimateRevenue estimate
Valuation estimate
Good Judgment leadership team
Management profileNumber of profiles
Profiles16 records
Good Judgment funding detail
Funding detailFunding overview
Funding rounds
Investors
Funding detail is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →
Good Judgment M&A and investment
M&A and investmentM&A
Investments
M&A and investment is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →
Frequently asked questions about Good Judgment
What does Good Judgment do?
Good Judgment delivers probabilistic forecasting and decision-support services built on its proprietary Superforecasting methodology, leveraging a vetted global network of elite forecasters. Its core subscription product, FutureFirst, provides 24/7 access to daily updated forecasts on geopolitical, economic, technological, and public health questions, supplemented by bespoke Custom Superforecasts for client-specific questions, training workshops, and a public forecasting platform.
Is Good Judgment a public or private company?
Good Judgment is a private company. It is classified as founder individual operated bootstrapped and is currently operating.
When was Good Judgment founded?
Good Judgment was founded in 2015. It employs 11 to 50 people.
Where is Good Judgment based?
Good Judgment is headquartered in New York, United States, in the North America region.
How does Good Judgment make money?
Four revenue lines are on record. FutureFirst Subscription is the primary driver. The others are custom Superforecasts, training & Workshops and good Judgment Open Platform.
Who are Good Judgment's main competitors?
Direct peers on record are Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus, PredictIt and Rhombus Power. Emerging players are Primer.ai and Morning Consult. Broad incumbents are RAND Corporation and CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies). Hypermind is listed as a regional player.
Does Good Judgment have an API?
Yes. FutureFirst subscription service includes API downloads of current and historical forecasts. Clients can access daily aggregated forecast updates, historical forecast trends, and overview reports via an online dashboard with programmatic access.
What industry is Good Judgment in?
Good Judgment's product category is Predictive Forecasting Services. Its primary akta.pro industry code is BPACAMAG, Psychometric Test Publishing & Norming / Validation Services. Its NAICS code is 54169 and its SIC code is 8741.