The Bear Traps Report
The Bear Traps Report is an independent, subscription-based investment research publication founded in 2010 by Lawrence G. McDonald, delivering weekly macro research and the proprietary '21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators' to financial advisors, family offices, hedge funds, and portfolio managers.
- Company typePrivate
- Founded2010
- HeadquartersNew City, United States
- Headcount1–10
- GTM typeB2B
- OfferingServices
What The Bear Traps Report does
The Bear Traps Report, founded in 2010 by Lawrence G. McDonald, is an independent subscription-based investment research publication headquartered in New York. It delivers weekly macro research, credit and equity trade ideas, and proprietary political and systemic risk analysis to a client base of financial advisors, family offices, hedge funds, portfolio managers, trade desks, and — more recently — retail investors. Its core methodology is the trademarked '21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators', a framework McDonald developed from his first-hand experience as a senior distressed debt trader at Lehman Brothers where his team profited over $2 billion betting against the subprime mortgage market before the firm's collapse. The firm also employs a 7-factor model for scoring and ranking equities, ETFs, and sectors, and supports the analysis with a global network of analysts located in New York, Washington D.C., Toronto, Dublin, Frankfurt, Beijing, Puerto Rico, and Brazil.
The product suite is organized as tiered annual subscriptions — Institutional (multiple users, full research, weekly one-on-one founder calls, Bloomberg institutional chat), PRO (1–2 users, monthly calls), GOLD (single user, monthly calls), ONE IDEA (entry-level weekly single theme), and Turning Point (currently closed). Distribution is primarily direct sales to enterprise and high-net-worth clients, supplemented by a live Bloomberg institutional chat with 650+ investors and 60+ contributors, and a March 2026 partnership with Intellebox.ai that extends reach to 2,000+ RIAs, wealth managers, hedge funds, family offices, and retail investors across 23+ countries. Additional revenue comes from book sales (two New York Times bestsellers, with 'A Colossal Failure of Common Sense' selling over 400,000 copies in 12 languages) and 125+ paid keynote speaking engagements. The company has 1–10 employees, is privately held by McDonald, and operates as a New York LLC under the governing law of the State of New York.
The Bear Traps Report firmographics
Firmographics- Name
- The Bear Traps Report
- Legal name
- The Bear Traps Report LLC
- Website
- https://thebeartrapsreport.com
- Company type
- Private
- Founded year
- 2010
- Operating status
- Operating
- Headcount range
- 1–10 employees
- Short description
- The Bear Traps Report is an independent, subscription-based investment research publication founded in 2010 by Lawrence G. McDonald, delivering weekly macro research and the proprietary '21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators' to financial advisors, family offices, hedge funds, and portfolio managers.
- Ownership category
- akta.pro rank
Where The Bear Traps Report is headquartered
LocationHeadquarters
- HQ city
- New City
- HQ country
- United States
- HQ region
- North America
Offices1 record
Markets served
The Bear Traps Report business model
Business model- GTM type
- B2B
- Offering type
- Services
- Cost components
- Personnel, Operations, Marketing or Sales, Technology or R&D
Revenue model
- Subscription Memberships: Tiered subscription model providing weekly macro research, risk analysis, and investment recommendations. Tiers include Institutional (multiple users, full research), PRO (1-2 users, macro trade ideas), GOLD (single user, monthly calls), and ONE IDEA (single user, weekly ideas). Revenue is generated through recurring subscription fees.
- Book Sales: Sale of co-authored books including 'A Colossal Failure of Common Sense' and 'How to Listen When Markets Speak' published by major publishers (Crown Business/Random House and Penguin Random House respectively).
Pricing tiers
| Model | Billing | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Subscription | Annual | Institutional tier - Full research access with multiple account users |
| Subscription | Annual | PRO tier - 1 to 2 account users with macro trade ideas |
| Subscription | Annual | GOLD tier - Single user with monthly conference calls |
| Subscription | Annual | ONE IDEA tier - Entry-level single user weekly idea |
| Subscription | Annual | TURNING POINT - Currently Closed waiting list |
Go-to-market motion1 record
Distribution channels3 records
Marketing channels7 records
The Bear Traps Report product offering
Product offeringCore offering
The Bear Traps Report publishes weekly independent investment research focused on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas. Subscriptions are sold in tiers (Institutional, PRO, GOLD, ONE IDEA) granting access to proprietary 21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators, macro recaps, credit and equity trade strategies, conference calls, WhatsApp alerts, and a Bloomberg institutional chat community of 650+ investors. The company also generates revenue from two New York Times bestselling books and paid keynote speaking engagements by founder Lawrence McDonald.
Product overview
The Bear Traps Report is a weekly independent investment research publication offering a tiered subscription model centered on global political and systemic risk analysis with actionable trade ideas. The core product is the Institutional Membership (Open tier) providing full access to the 21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators, weekly macro research, credit market analysis, conference calls with founder Lawrence McDonald, and Bloomberg institutional chat. Additional subscription tiers include PRO (monthly access for 1-2 users), GOLD (single-user monthly access), and ONE IDEA (entry-level weekly single investment theme). The company also publishes two books: 'How to Listen When Markets Speak' (2024) covering macro regime shifts and hard assets, and 'A Colossal Failure of Common Sense' (2010) about the Lehman collapse. Larry McDonald offers keynote speaking engagements as an additional service.
Differentiator
Problem solved
Functional benefit
Brands
- Open Institutional: Premium membership tier offering multiple account users, 21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators, weekly macroeconomic recap, ETF capitulation trades, credit market overview, and bespoke policy research with weekly conference calls.
- PRO
- GOLD
- Turning Point
- One Idea
Products and services
- The Bear Traps Report Institutional Membership (Open) Top-tier subscription for multiple account users delivering weekly written research including the 21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators, weekly macroeconomic recap, ETF capitulation trades, equity and credit trade strategies, weekly conference calls (Latin America, Puerto Rico, Fed/ECB, European political risk, China systemic risk), weekly one-on-one calls with Larry McDonald, WhatsApp Bear Traps Trade Alerts and access to the live Bloomberg institutional chat with 650+ investors. Designed for institutional investors, family offices and hedge funds.
- The Bear Traps Report PRO Membership Mid-tier subscription for 1-2 account users including written research (21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators, weekly macro recap, ETF capitulation trades, equity allocation strategies, credit market overview), macro trade ideas, currency views and high-yield analysis, monthly conference calls with Larry McDonald and analysts, monthly one-on-one calls and WhatsApp Bear Traps Trade Alerts.
- The Bear Traps Report GOLD Membership Single-user subscription tier offering written research access (including the 21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators and weekly macroeconomic recap) plus monthly client conference calls with Larry McDonald and the analyst team.
- The Bear Traps Report ONE IDEA Entry-level weekly subscription delivering a single powerful theme, actionable investment idea or timeless lesson each week from veteran institutional investors Craig Shapiro and Lawrence McDonald, designed for retail investors and as a gateway to the full Bear Traps suite.
- Turning Point Membership Subscription tier offering weekly macro recap and medium-to-long-term strategies. Currently closed with no waiting list available.
- A Colossal Failure of Common Sense International bestseller book by Lawrence McDonald and Patrick Robinson detailing the inside story of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Published by Crown Business/Random House; translated into 12 languages; over 400,000 copies sold; ranked among the top 20 financial books of all time by the CFA Institute.
- How to Listen When Markets Speak NY Times bestselling book by Lawrence G. McDonald with James Patrick Robinson, published by Penguin Random House, covering risks, myths and investment opportunities in a radically reshaped economy. Translated into Chinese, Korean and Portuguese; ranked in the top finance books lists and top #10 on Amazon in non-fiction finance categories.
- Keynote Speaking Engagements Paid keynote speeches delivered worldwide by Larry McDonald on topics including Trump presidency political risk, global systemic risk, U.S. economic outlook, China economic risk, emerging markets, investment risk management and Federal Reserve policy. Over 125 keynote speeches delivered, including events at MoneyShow, Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, CFAL Conference and University Club NYC.
Quantifiable outcome
- Account grew from $235,369 to $547,000+ over 5 years by following Bear Traps Report trade calls
Companies that use The Bear Traps Report
Customer profileNamed customers10 records
Segments5 records
Ideal customer profiles4 records
The Bear Traps Report technology and API
TechnologyTechnology focussed No
API detail
- Has API
- No
- API docs
- API detail
Core technology
AI maturity
App detail
Feature1 record
The Bear Traps Report partnerships and signals
Strategic signalPartnerships
One partnership is on record.
- Intellebox.aiminorIntellebox.ai, a San Francisco-based agentic AI platform for wealth managers, partners with The Bear Traps Report to distribute weekly macro research, risk analysis, and investment recommendations via AI platform to over 2,000 RIAs, wealth managers, hedge funds, family offices, and retail investors in 23+ countries. The platform uses AI agents to interpret user intent, automate workflows, and deliver personalized, real-time content to subscribers.
Scale indicators10 records
Recent moves6 records
Expansion highlights5 records
The Bear Traps Report competitors and assessment
Company assessmentDirect peers
- Hedgeye Risk Management: Independent subscription-based macro research and investing service founded by Keith McCullough, offering daily research, trade ideas, and proprietary quantitative signals (Hedgeye Investing Method) to institutional and retail subscribers. Closely comparable business model, target customer base, and 'founder-led independent research' positioning.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer: Long-running (since 1983) independent subscription research publication covering credit, macro and markets with a famous value-investor founder legacy. Comparable subscription-only research format serving institutional investors with high-density written analysis.
- Gavekal Research: Subscription-based independent research firm providing macro and country-level analysis with offices across Asia, Europe and North America. Closely comparable institutional macro research subscription model with multi-region coverage.
- BCA Research: Large independent global investment research firm providing macro, asset allocation, and sector research via subscription to institutional investors. Closest larger-scale analog to The Bear Traps Report in terms of multi-asset macro research subscriptions.
- Variant Perception: Subscription-based independent research service offering differentiated macro and geopolitical research to institutional clients. Comparable in being a focused, founder-driven independent research subscription product targeting professional investors.
- Alpine Macro: Independent macro research firm offering subscription-based global investment research with emphasis on geopolitical and policy risk. Directly comparable to Bear Traps on the political/systemic risk differentiation theme.
Emerging players
- CrossBorder Capital (Michael Howell): Independent research firm focused on global liquidity indicators and macro flows. Comparable as a single-author independent macro research subscription service, though more narrowly focused on liquidity than Bear Traps' multi-asset political/systemic risk approach.
- The Macro Compass (Alfonso Peccatiello): Independent macro research newsletter covering global markets, macro trades and cross-asset views via Substack subscription. Comparable as an independent founder-led macro research subscription, though at smaller scale and with a different distribution model.
Others
- Intellebox.ai: San Francisco-based agentic AI platform for wealth managers that has a distribution partnership with The Bear Traps Report. Listed as an ecosystem/channel partner rather than a competitor.
Broad incumbents
- Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Research: Large sell-side research division that simultaneously is a Bear Traps customer and a competitor (sell-side macro research distributed free to clients). Comparable as an institutional macro research provider but embedded in a much broader franchise and free at point of use.
Market position
Strengths5 records
Weaknesses5 records
Competitive moat5 records
Key risks6 records
Key highlights7 records
Customer concentration
The Bear Traps Report social profiles
Digital presenceThe Bear Traps Report financial estimates
Financial estimateRevenue estimate
Valuation estimate
The Bear Traps Report leadership team
Management profileNumber of profiles
Profiles3 records
The Bear Traps Report funding detail
Funding detailFunding overview
Funding rounds
Investors
Funding detail is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →
The Bear Traps Report M&A and investment
M&A and investmentM&A
Investments
M&A and investment is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →
Frequently asked questions about The Bear Traps Report
What does The Bear Traps Report do?
The Bear Traps Report publishes weekly independent investment research focused on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas. Subscriptions are sold in tiers (Institutional, PRO, GOLD, ONE IDEA) granting access to proprietary 21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators, macro recaps, credit and equity trade strategies, conference calls, WhatsApp alerts, and a Bloomberg institutional chat community of 650+ investors. The company also generates revenue from two New York Times bestselling books and paid keynote speaking engagements by founder Lawrence McDonald.
Is The Bear Traps Report a public or private company?
The Bear Traps Report is a private company. It is classified as founder individual operated bootstrapped and is currently operating.
When was The Bear Traps Report founded?
The Bear Traps Report was founded in 2010. It employs 1 to 10 people.
Where is The Bear Traps Report based?
The Bear Traps Report is headquartered in New City, United States, in the North America region.
How does The Bear Traps Report make money?
Two revenue lines are on record. Subscription Memberships are the primary driver. The others are book Sales.
Who are The Bear Traps Report's main competitors?
Direct peers on record are Hedgeye Risk Management, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, Gavekal Research, BCA Research, Variant Perception and Alpine Macro. Emerging players are CrossBorder Capital (Michael Howell) and The Macro Compass (Alfonso Peccatiello). Intellebox.ai is listed as an others. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Research is listed as a broad incumbent.
Does The Bear Traps Report have an API?
No public API is recorded for The Bear Traps Report.