Hubbard Decision Research

What Hubbard Decision Research does

Hubbard Decision Research (HDR) is a privately held boutique consulting firm founded in 1998/1999 by Douglas W. Hubbard and headquartered in Glen Ellyn, Illinois, with a remote-first operating model and approximately 8-10 employees. The firm commercializes a proprietary quantitative methodology called Applied Information Economics (AIE), which combines Bayesian analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, calibration techniques, and decision analysis to enable organizations to measure previously 'immeasurable' intangibles and make data-driven decisions under uncertainty. Its product portfolio spans enterprise consulting engagements, private 2-day seminars (up to 20 attendees at client sites), an AIE Academy of asynchronous and live training courses (including a Cybersecurity Risk Analyst Training series and a Project Management Series co-developed with Oxford Global Projects), a Team Calibrator software platform that uses a hybrid machine-learning algorithm (FrankenSME) for aggregating expert forecasts, recurring subscriptions (Limited Research at $2,450/year and Corporate VIP at $8,500/year), books authored by the founder (with cumulative sales of 190,000+ copies in 8 languages), and expert phone consultations priced at $350-$1,050 per hour.

HDR's go-to-market combines direct enterprise sales (targeting Fortune 500 companies, federal and state governments, and the U.S. military) with a self-serve e-commerce funnel, a content-driven inbound motion (Big Decisions Blog, newsletter, social media), event-driven demand (Doug Hubbard's speaking circuit, recurring webinars), and a marketplace channel through LinkedIn Learning. The firm generates revenue across five primary streams: custom enterprise consulting (professional services), training programs and seminars (professional services), recurring subscriptions (subscription), books and study materials (one-time license), and phone consultations (professional services). Customer segments include Fortune 500 enterprises, U.S. federal/state government agencies, the U.S. military, and selected verticals such as insurance, financial services/banking, healthcare/life sciences, and agriculture, with named engagements involving ACORD, the United Nations Environmental Program, the Department of Veterans Affairs, Forrester Research, and Life Technologies.

The company is founder-owned, bootstrapped, and shows no evidence of external venture capital or private equity investment. Senior leadership includes Founder Douglas W. Hubbard, CEO Andrew Adams (McGill BCom, MSc Applied Mathematics; ex-IBM, BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS), COO and Director of Cognitive Research Peter Mallik, PhD (University of Akron, 2019), and CFO Janet Hubbard (co-founder). The team also includes senior quantitative analysts with graduate training in finance, economics, and psychology. Strategic partnerships include a joint ROI calculator with vCSO.ai (April 2025), a co-developed training series with Oxford Global Projects, and content distribution through LinkedIn Learning.

Name

Hubbard Decision Research

Legal name

Hubbard Decision Research

Website

https://hubbardresearch.com

Company type

Private

Founded year

1999

Operating status

Operating

Headcount range

1–10 employees

Short description

Hubbard Decision Research is a privately held boutique consulting firm (~8-10 employees) that applies its proprietary Applied Information Economics (AIE) methodology — combining Bayesian analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and calibration — to help Fortune 500 companies, government agencies, and the U.S. military measure intangibles and improve quantitative decision-making.

Ownership category

akta.pro rank

Headquarters

HQ city

Glen Ellyn

HQ country

United States

HQ region

North America

Offices1 record

Markets served

GTM type

B2B

Offering type

Services

Cost components

Personnel, Technology or R&D, Marketing or Sales, Operations

Revenue model

1. Enterprise Consulting: Custom consulting engagements helping organizations measure intangibles and make better decisions. Projects include risk/return analyses of large investments, cybersecurity assessments, and decision analysis for Fortune 500 companies, governments, and military.
2. Training & Seminars: Revenue from instructor-led private seminars (2-day events at client locations), asynchronous training courses, and webinar sessions. Includes AIE Analyst Training, Cybersecurity Risk Analyst Training, and various specialized programs.
3. Subscriptions: Annual subscriptions providing access to AIE library, tools, and templates. Limited Research Subscription ($2,450/year for one analyst) and Corporate VIP AIE Tools and Library Access ($8,500/year for five persons).
4. Publications & Books: Sale of books authored by Doug Hubbard including 'How to Measure Anything' series, 'The Failure of Risk Management', and related study guides ($29.95-$70 per book).
5. Phone Consultations: One-hour expert phone consultations with HDR analysts ($350) or Doug Hubbard specifically ($1,050) for advice on measurement problems.

Pricing tiers

Go-to-market motion3 records

Distribution channels5 records

Marketing channels8 records

Core offering

Hubbard Decision Research provides quantitative decision analysis, risk modeling, and measurement-of-intangibles consulting services built on its proprietary Applied Information Economics (AIE) methodology. The firm sells training programs, self-paced courses, private seminars, software tools (including the Team Calibrator platform), expert phone consultations, and authored books to Fortune 500 companies, U.S. government agencies, and the U.S. military.

Product overview

Hubbard Decision Research (HDR) is a consulting firm offering training, consulting services, and tools based on Applied Information Economics (AIE) — a proprietary quantitative analysis methodology. The portfolio consists of: training programs (AIE Analyst Series, Cybersecurity Risk Analyst Training, Project Management Series with Oxford Global Projects); self-paced courses (simulation training in Excel, calibrated probability assessments, AIE principles); private seminars (delivered on-site or remotely covering AIE, project management, enterprise risk management, cybersecurity); consulting services (Doug Hubbard and HDR Expert phone consultations); subscriptions (Corporate VIP and Limited Research subscriptions providing tool library access); books authored by Doug Hubbard; and the Team Calibrator platform (a hybrid machine-learning tool for expert calibration and aggregation). The offerings are primarily delivered via HDR's Academy platform (academy.hubbardresearch.com) and Microsoft Teams for live sessions.

Differentiator

Problem solved

Functional benefit

Products and services

• AIE Analyst Series

Quantifiable outcome

• HDR's pricing model helped a manufacturing firm triple their operating income by measuring expert pricing behavior and price elasticity
• +3 more outcomes

Named customers10 records

Segments5 records

Ideal customer profiles3 records

Technology focussed No

API detail

Has API

No

API docs

API detail

Core technology

AI maturity

App detail

Feature6 records

Partnerships

Five partnerships are on record, tiered core and minor.

• Oxford Global ProjectscoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerJoint delivery of 'How to Measure Anything in Project Management Series' combining HDR's Applied Information Economics methods with Oxford Global Projects' expertise in large-scale project analytics and Reference Class Forecasting. The program includes 7 live sessions and 3 asynchronous courses totaling 21 hours of training delivered via Teams.
• LinkedIn LearningminorChannel Partner/ Reseller/ DistributorHDR courses such as 'How to Measure Anything in AI' are delivered through LinkedIn Learning platform, extending reach to LinkedIn's professional learning audience.
• ACORDminorImplementation/ SI/ Consulting PartnerHDR was engaged by ACORD (insurance industry standards organization) to analyze the impact of its standards on members and the entire insurance industry. Analysis showed standards worth over $1 billion per year.
• United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)minorStrategic or Co-development PartnerHDR conducted analysis for UNEP on desert restoration impact for the Kubuqi Desert in Inner Mongolia. HDR constructed models measuring agricultural output reduction, water table impact, dust storms, and economic community impact.
• vCSO.aicoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerJoint solution providing companies with a customized, reusable ROI calculator to quantify and communicate the value of cybersecurity products to prospective customers.

Scale indicators6 records

Recent moves6 records

Expansion highlights6 records

Emerging players

• Kovrr: Kovrr is an emerging cyber risk quantification vendor using AI/ML to model financial exposure to cyber events. It is comparable to HDR's cybersecurity risk engagements as an automated, software-first alternative to HDR's bespoke Monte Carlo models.
• Safe Security: Safe Security provides AI-driven cyber risk quantification (SAFE platform) for enterprises and insurers. It competes for the same enterprise cybersecurity budget that HDR addresses through consulting and the Cybersecurity Risk Analyst Training.
• Frontline Systems: Frontline Systems is the developer of the Risk Solver Platform and Solver for Excel — Monte Carlo simulation and optimization tools used by enterprise analysts. Comparable to HDR as an Excel-native quantitative decision-analysis tooling vendor competing for similar training and tooling buyers.
• Cyentia Institute: Cyentia Institute is a cybersecurity research and analytics firm that publishes data-driven studies for the cyber risk market. Comparable to HDR in its research-driven, niche cyber-risk content play and overlap in serving insurance and financial-services cyber buyers.

Direct peers

• Axio: Axio (formerly RiskLens) is a leading cybersecurity risk quantification platform using FAIR methodology. It is a direct competitor to HDR's cybersecurity risk consulting and Cybersecurity Risk Analyst Training on the same buyer (CISOs and risk officers).
• Lumivero: Lumivero (formerly DecisionTools) provides the DecisionTools Suite (@RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank, NeuralTools) for risk and decision analysis in Excel. It directly competes with HDR's AIE methodology and AIE Monte Carlo Wizard for the same enterprise quantitative analyst persona.
• Palisade: Palisade is the developer of @RISK, the most widely used Excel-based Monte Carlo simulation add-in. Both firms sell Monte Carlo simulation training and tools to enterprise risk/decision analysts, competing for the same Excel-centric quantitative analyst buyer.

Broad incumbents

• McKinsey & Company (QuantumBlack): McKinsey's QuantumBlack is the firm's advanced analytics arm, serving Fortune 500 and government clients on quantitative decision analysis. It competes with HDR at the upper end of enterprise decision-analytics engagements where McKinsey's brand and scale outweigh HDR's specialist depth.
• Oliver Wyman: Oliver Wyman provides risk and management consulting to financial services and insurance carriers — the same verticals where HDR has named engagements (ACORD, unnamed insurers, banking clients). Comparable as a broad incumbent in enterprise risk modeling.
• Bain & Company: Bain is a global management consulting firm serving Fortune 500 and government clients with practices spanning risk, advanced analytics, and corporate strategy. It competes with HDR for large enterprise decision-analysis engagements where brand and global footprint matter.

Market position

Strengths4 records

Weaknesses4 records

Competitive moat4 records

Key risks6 records

Key highlights7 records

Customer concentration

• Xx.com/hubbardaie
• YouTubeyoutube.com/channel/UCTmJ9v_1uXGkvcmny3iETOA
• Facebookfacebook.com/207615992607062
• LinkedInlinkedin.com/company/hubbard-decision-research

Revenue estimate

Valuation estimate

Number of profiles

Profiles8 records

Funding overview

Funding rounds

Investors

Funding detail is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →

M&A

Investments

M&A and investment is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →

Frequently asked questions about Hubbard Decision Research