Probable Futures
Probable Futures is a non-profit climate literacy initiative that provides free interactive climate maps, educational handbooks, and customized engagements, serving individuals, educators, business leaders, and governments to integrate climate considerations into decision-making.
- Company typePrivate
- Founded2021
- HeadquartersWashington, United States
- Headcount1–10
- GTM typeB2B and B2C
- OfferingServices
What Probable Futures does
Probable Futures is a non-profit climate literacy initiative founded by Spencer Glendon and operated as a fiscally sponsored project of Durable Capital for Sustainable Outcomes (DBA The Resiliency Company), a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. The organization produces digital materials, interactive data tools, and customized engagements designed to make climate science accessible to individuals, educators, business leaders, and government and community decision-makers. It was founded with the goal of mainstreaming climate considerations into everyday decisions at home, at work, and in communities, framing climate literacy as a prerequisite for climate action.
The platform's core products are the Climate Maps (an interactive visualization tool presenting CORDEX-CORE regional climate model projections as global and local maps across 0.5°C to 3°C warming increments), the Climate Handbook (foundational educational reading on climate systems), and Perspectives (a library of articles, explainers, and seasonal letters). Every offering goes through scientific review with the Woodwell Climate Research Center. Distribution combines a self-serve free website (no pricing tier — resources are donated to the public) with live learning experiences including speaking programs, executive workshops, and advising for enterprises and governments. The technical infrastructure was built by Postlight with ongoing development by Speedlane and data systems work with Rho AI.
Probable Futures is funded through donations and operates without disclosed revenue, traditional venture funding, or institutional equity ownership. The team is small (~12 people) and led by Executive Director Alison Smart, with a 2024 addition of a Director of Climate Adaptation Research (Nabig Chaudhry) via the Harvard Business School Leadership Fellows Program. The organization is expanding its commercial-adjacent footprint through integration partnerships — notably embedding its data into Aravo's third-party risk management software — and has signaled intent to explore AI-augmented delivery of its content in partnership with DataKind.
Probable Futures firmographics
Firmographics- Name
- Probable Futures
- Legal name
- Probable Futures, a Project of Durable Capital for Sustainable Outcomes, DBA The Resiliency Company
- Website
- https://probablefutures.org
- Company type
- Private
- Founded year
- 2021
- Operating status
- Operating
- Headcount range
- 1–10 employees
- Short description
- Probable Futures is a non-profit climate literacy initiative that provides free interactive climate maps, educational handbooks, and customized engagements, serving individuals, educators, business leaders, and governments to integrate climate considerations into decision-making.
- Ownership category
- akta.pro rank
Probable Futures industry classification
Industry- Product category
- Climate Education and Risk Visualization
- NAICS
- Scientific Research and Development Services (5417)
- SIC
- Miscellaneous Publishing (2741)
- akta.pro primary industry
- Downscaled Climate Projections & Scenario Analytics (CMIP, SSP/RCP, Regionalization) (EUABALAB)
- akta.pro secondary industries
- Scenario Planning, Forecasting Platforms & Planning Intelligence (HDAAAHAL), Climate Risk & Scenario Analysis (TCFD/IFRS S2) (EUAHAJAD)
Keywords
Where Probable Futures is headquartered
LocationHeadquarters
- HQ city
- Washington
- HQ country
- United States
- HQ region
- North America
Offices1 record
Markets served
Probable Futures business model
Business model- GTM type
- B2B and B2C
- Offering type
- Services
- Cost components
- Personnel, Technology or R&D, Marketing or Sales, Operations
Revenue model
- Donations and Support: Probable Futures is a non-profit climate literacy initiative that operates on donations. The website explicitly invites visitors to 'support us'. The platform and its resources are offered free of charge to the public.
Go-to-market motion2 records
Distribution channels4 records
Marketing channels6 records
Probable Futures product offering
Product offeringCore offering
Probable Futures is a non-profit climate literacy initiative that offers digital materials, data tools, and customized engagements to individuals and organizations. Its core products include interactive Climate Maps that visualize climate model projections at varying degrees of warming, a foundational Climate Handbook, and a Perspectives content library of articles and explainers, complemented by live learning experiences and tailored advisory engagements.
Product overview
Probable Futures is a non-profit climate literacy initiative that operates as a digital education platform offering three core products: the Climate Maps (interactive visualization tool), Climate Handbook (foundational educational resource), and Perspectives (articles and explainers). These are complemented by customized engagement services including live workshops and advisory sessions. The platform translates complex climate science and model data from sources like CORDEX-CORE into accessible content for individuals and organizations to understand climate change impacts and prepare for future conditions.
Differentiator
Problem solved
Functional benefit
Products and services
- Climate Maps Interactive web-based visualization tool that allows users to explore climate change projections at various degrees of warming (0.5°C to 3°C), transforming complex CORDEX-CORE climate model data into accessible map-based representations of past, present, and future climate conditions worldwide.
- Climate Handbook Digital educational resource that makes climate science accessible and understandable, exploring how climate systems work and what changes are occurring, serving as foundational reading material for climate literacy.
- Perspectives Collection of climate explainers, articles, essays, and thought leadership content covering topics such as climate risk, adaptation, sea level rise, drought, heat, wildfires, and climate models, including seasonal essays and director letters.
- Live Learning Experiences and Workshops
Quantifiable outcome
- 96% of surveyed visitors find the site useful
- +3 more outcomes
Companies that use Probable Futures
Customer profileNamed customers6 records
Segments6 records
Ideal customer profiles5 records
Probable Futures technology and API
TechnologyTechnology focussed Yes
API detail
- Has API
- No
- API docs
- API detail
Core technology
AI maturity
App detail
Integration1 record
Feature4 records
Probable Futures partnerships and signals
Strategic signalPartnerships
Ten partnerships are on record, tiered core and supporting.
- Woodwell Climate Research CentercoreScience partner providing rigorous scientific review of all Probable Futures offerings. Reviewers assess language and methodologies to ensure they are widely used in the scientific community and defensible. This partnership enables Probable Futures to share 'the gift of climate science' through their freely available tools and resources.
- PostlightcoreTechnology partner that built the Probable Futures platform. Postlight developed the technical infrastructure for the interactive climate maps and digital tools.
- Moth DesigncoreVisual design and branding partner responsible for the aesthetic presentation of Probable Futures materials.
- Rho AIsupportingPartner helping build robust systems for Probable Futures data and climate data management.
- AravocoreMarket-leading third-party risk management software with 440,000+ corporate users. Partnering to integrate Probable Futures climate risk data into its product, enabling supply chain and risk managers to understand, assess, and address climate risk from the same platform they use for all other third-party risk.
- DataKindsupportingOrganization focused on using data science and AI for good social outcomes. Conducted exploratory work and demonstrations for an AI chatbot powered by Probable Futures data.
- Climate Interactive (En-ROADS)supportingClimate Interactive's En-ROADS online simulator is exploring how Probable Futures maps might bring new fidelity to their climate solution simulations, allowing users to understand both choices in powering the world and the climate consequences.
- SpeedlanecoreBeirut-based development team continually designing and improving Probable Futures infrastructure, writing documentation, and building interfaces that enable experimentation and innovation.
- Harvard Business School Leadership Fellows ProgramsupportingNabig Chaudhry joined as Director of Climate Adaptation Research through this fellowship, conducting research, publishing case studies, and recommending products for adaptation needs in private and public sectors.
- Durable Capital for Sustainable Outcomes / The Resiliency CompanycoreFiscal sponsor - Probable Futures operates as a fiscally sponsored project of this 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. This structure enables the nonprofit operation of Probable Futures.
Scale indicators7 records
Recent moves6 records
Expansion highlights6 records
Probable Futures competitors and assessment
Company assessmentDirect peers
- Climate Interactive (En-ROADS): Non-profit building interactive climate simulations and policy scenario tools for decision-makers and educators. Directly comparable to Probable Futures as a fellow non-profit climate literacy initiative with interactive tools, and is already a listed partner exploring integration with Probable Futures maps.
- Climate Central: Non-profit climate science communications organization producing visualizations, maps, and reports that translate climate research for the public and media. Closest direct peer in mission (climate literacy through visualizations) and non-profit funding model.
- Carbon Brief: Climate-focused journalism and data website covering climate science, policy, and impacts with original visualizations. Comparable as a content-led climate literacy platform serving decision-makers, educators, and the general public.
- Berkeley Earth: Independent non-profit providing open climate data and visualizations, particularly temperature and land-use datasets. Comparable as a non-profit turning climate science into accessible, public-facing data tools.
- Yale Climate Connections: Non-profit climate communications initiative producing articles, radio stories, and explainers linking climate science to daily life. Highly comparable audience and mission around climate literacy for the general public and educators.
Others
- Woodwell Climate Research Center: Climate science research institute and Probable Futures' scientific review partner. Relevant as the upstream science provider validating Probable Futures' data, and as a peer in the broader climate science and policy ecosystem.
- Our World in Data (Climate): Non-profit data and research publication producing open-access interactive charts on climate and energy. Comparable as a free, widely used public-facing climate literacy and visualization resource for educators and the general public.
- NOAA Climate.gov: U.S. government portal providing climate data, maps, and educational resources for scientists, educators, and the public. Comparable as a free, authoritative source of climate visualizations and literacy content, and a potential ecosystem partner or competitor.
Broad incumbents
- Jupiter Intelligence: Commercial climate risk analytics platform serving enterprises with proprietary physical risk models. Comparable underlying use case (physical climate risk communication) but operates as a paid SaaS incumbent targeting the same enterprise buyers Probable Futures reaches.
- XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative): Commercial provider of physical climate risk analytics and asset-level damage modeling for infrastructure, real estate, and finance. Comparable enterprise climate risk use case, especially for the real estate and finance audiences Probable Futures engages.
Market position
Strengths4 records
Weaknesses4 records
Competitive moat4 records
Key risks6 records
Key highlights5 records
Customer concentration
Probable Futures social profiles
Digital presenceProbable Futures financial estimates
Financial estimateRevenue estimate
Valuation estimate
Probable Futures leadership team
Management profileNumber of profiles
Profiles4 records
Probable Futures funding detail
Funding detailFunding overview
Funding rounds
Investors
Funding detail is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →
Probable Futures M&A and investment
M&A and investmentM&A
Investments
M&A and investment is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →
Frequently asked questions about Probable Futures
What does Probable Futures do?
Probable Futures is a non-profit climate literacy initiative that offers digital materials, data tools, and customized engagements to individuals and organizations. Its core products include interactive Climate Maps that visualize climate model projections at varying degrees of warming, a foundational Climate Handbook, and a Perspectives content library of articles and explainers, complemented by live learning experiences and tailored advisory engagements.
Is Probable Futures a public or private company?
Probable Futures is a private company. It is classified as nonprofit foundation owned and is currently operating.
When was Probable Futures founded?
Probable Futures was founded in 2021. It employs 1 to 10 people.
Where is Probable Futures based?
Probable Futures is headquartered in Washington, United States, in the North America region.
How does Probable Futures make money?
One revenue line is on record: donations and Support.
Who are Probable Futures's main competitors?
Direct peers on record are Climate Interactive (En-ROADS), Climate Central, Carbon Brief, Berkeley Earth and Yale Climate Connections. Others are Woodwell Climate Research Center, Our World in Data (Climate) and NOAA Climate.gov. Broad incumbents are Jupiter Intelligence and XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative).
Does Probable Futures have an API?
No public API is recorded for Probable Futures.
What industry is Probable Futures in?
Probable Futures's product category is Climate Education and Risk Visualization. Its primary akta.pro industry code is EUABALAB, Downscaled Climate Projections & Scenario Analytics (CMIP, SSP/RCP, Regionalization), with a secondary code of HDAAAHAL, Scenario Planning, Forecasting Platforms & Planning Intelligence. Its NAICS code is 5417 and its SIC code is 2741.