Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Threats and Emergencies (CREATE)

Name

Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Threats and Emergencies (CREATE)

Legal name

Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Threats and Emergencies

Website

https://create.usc.edu

Company type

Private

Founded year

2004

Operating status

Operating

Headcount range

1–10 employees

Short description

CREATE is a USC-based, DHS-funded university research center established in 2004 as the first DHS Center of Excellence, developing game-theoretic security software (ARMOR suite), economic consequence models, and risk-analysis tools for U.S. federal, state, and local homeland security and emergency management agencies.

Ownership category

akta.pro rank

Headquarters

HQ city

Los Angeles

HQ country

United States

HQ region

North America

Offices1 record

Markets served

GTM type

B2B

Offering type

Services

Cost components

Personnel, Technology or R&D, Operations

Revenue model

1. Federal Government Research Grants: Primary funding from U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate through University Programs Office as a designated Center of Excellence
2. Department of Defense Contracts: Research contracts for transportation logistics in post-conflict zones and defense-related studies
3. State and Local Government Projects: Collaborations with California Office of Emergency Services, ports, and local agencies

Distribution channels3 records

Marketing channels5 records

Core offering

CREATE is a university-based research center that develops advanced models, software tools, and analytical frameworks for evaluating the risks, costs, and consequences of threats to human livelihood. Its offerings include game-theoretic security randomization systems (ARMOR suite), economic consequence analysis tools (E-CAT, CGE models), expert elicitation platforms, and risk assessment software used by federal, state, and local government agencies for homeland security, disaster resilience, and emergency response applications.

Product overview

CREATE operates as a research center that has developed a portfolio of specialized homeland security tools and software products. The core offerings include the ARMOR suite (ARMOR, ARMOR-GUARDS, ARMOR-PROTECT, ARMOR-TRUSTS, ARMOR-FISH) providing game-theoretic security randomization and resource allocation across airports, ports, and transit systems; the E-CAT economic consequence analysis tool and related CGE models for disaster impact estimation; DET expert elicitation tools; and specialized products like PORTSEC, DPS DEPLOY, and POET for specific threat domains. Research capabilities include behavioral analysis, risk assessment, economic consequence modeling, and decision analysis, delivered through models, software, professional training, and executive education programs in partnership with DHS and other federal agencies.

Differentiator

Problem solved

Functional benefit

Products and services

• ARMOR (Assistant for Randomized Monitoring Over Routes) Security randomization software that generates unpredictable patrol schedules and resource allocations to thwart adversaries; originally developed for Los Angeles Police at LAX and used by multiple government agencies across the U.S.
• ARMOR-GUARDS Game-theoretic resource allocation system for airport protection deployed at over 400 U.S. airports using Stackelberg attacker-defender framework.
• ARMOR-PROTECT Port security resource allocation tool assisting U.S. Coast Guard in deploying patrolling resources against terrorist adversaries using game-theoretic modeling.
• ARMOR-TRUSTS Tactical randomization system for urban transit security, producing patrol schedules to deter fare evasion in the Los Angeles Metro system.
• ARMOR-FISH Coast Guard tool for preventing illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing using game-theoretic patrol optimization.
• E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) Excel Visual Basic decision-support tool providing rapid estimates of economic impacts of threats including terrorist attacks, natural disasters, and technological accidents on U.S. GDP and employment.
• DET (Dirichlet Expert Elicitation and Aggregation Tool) Visual Basic/Excel tool used by DHS Office of Risk Management Analysis and Battelle National Biodefense Institute for collecting expert judgments and producing Dirichlet distributions for attack mode probabilities.
• DPS DEPLOY Real-time decision support system for USC campus security, generating customized risk heat maps from historical crime data.
• PORTSEC Risk assessment and resource allocation software for Los Angeles and Long Beach port security officers to balance security activities, countermeasures, and business continuity.
• CGE Models (Computable General Equilibrium) Economic modeling framework analyzing behavioral responses of businesses and households to price changes, fiscal policy, and severe external shocks including terrorist attacks and natural disasters.
• POET (Power Outage Economic Tool) Tool for estimating economy-wide economic consequences of widespread, long-duration electric power interruptions.
• EQ Rapid Estimation Tool Reduced-form tool for rapid calculation of property damage and business interruption from earthquake events in California.
• STAMINA (S&T Analysis and Management of Innovation Activity) S&T Analysis and Management of Innovation Activity program providing methodologies for developing quantitative R&D benefit descriptions and Benefit-Cost-Risk Analysis frameworks.
• SENTRY (Soft Target Engineering to Neutralize the Threat Reality) Center of Excellence focused on stakeholder-informed R&D for securing soft targets and crowded places.
• ADAC-ARCTIC (Arctic Domain Awareness Center) Arctic Domain Awareness Center technology transfer and commercialization initiative for Arctic homeland security tools and technologies.

Quantifiable outcome

• Developed definitive estimate of economic impacts of September 11 World Trade Center Attacks
• +3 more outcomes

Named customers6 records

Segments3 records

Ideal customer profiles3 records

Technology focussed Yes

API detail

Has API

No

API docs

API detail

Core technology

AI maturity

App detail

AI capability7 records

Feature5 records

Partnerships

22 partnerships are on record, tiered primary, major, regional, core and strategic.

• U.S. Department of Homeland SecurityprimaryStrategic or Co-development PartnerPrimary federal sponsor and partner; established CREATE as the first university-based Center of Excellence funded by DHS in 2004. DHS S&T Directorate's Office of University Programs provides ongoing funding and research direction.
• U.S. Custom and Border ProtectionmajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerCollaborates on research examining economic impacts of border wait times, trade facilitation benefits, and border security optimization.
• Transportation Security AdministrationmajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerPartnership on security countermeasure effectiveness studies, behavioral responses to terrorism, and airport security optimization.
• U.S. Coast GuardmajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerCollaboration on maritime security through ARMOR-GUARDS and ARMOR PROTECT software deployment for patrol allocation optimization.
• California Governor's Office of Emergency ServicesregionalStrategic or Co-development PartnerState emergency management partnership for disaster resilience research and emergency response strategy development.
• Port of Los AngelesregionalStrategic or Co-development PartnerPort security risk assessment collaboration using PortSec software for optimal security-countersmeasure-business continuity balancing.
• Port of Long BeachregionalStrategic or Co-development PartnerJoint risk assessment and resource allocation analysis for port security optimization.
• Los Angeles International AirportregionalStrategic or Co-development PartnerOriginal deployment site for ARMOR randomization software for airport security optimization.
• Department of DefensemajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerFunding research on transportation logistics systems in post-conflict zones and defense-related homeland security studies.
• California Energy CommissionregionalStrategic or Co-development PartnerPartnership on energy infrastructure resilience and economic impact assessment of energy disruptions.
• Los Angeles County Sheriff's DepartmentregionalStrategic or Co-development PartnerCollaboration on security analysis and risk assessment for county law enforcement operations.
• U.S. Immigration and Customs EnforcementmajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerResearch partnership on immigration-related economic analysis and security assessment.
• Joint Regional Intelligence CenterregionalStrategic or Co-development PartnerIntelligence and analysis collaboration supporting regional homeland security efforts.
• Department of JusticemajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerResearch collaboration on criminal justice-related risk analysis and security economics.
• Domestic Nuclear Detection OfficemajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerPartnership on nuclear threat detection economics and consequence analysis.
• Ohio Highway PatrolregionalStrategic or Co-development PartnerState law enforcement partnership for security analysis and patrol optimization research.
• California Department of Corrections & RehabilitationregionalStrategic or Co-development PartnerResearch collaboration on corrections security and risk assessment.
• Federal Air Marshal ServicemajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerPartnership on aviation security optimization and threat deterrence analysis.
• Minority Serving InstitutionscoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerCREATE has engaged many Minority Serving Institutions in carrying out its programs, encouraging creative discovery through diverse academic collaboration.
• SENTRY (Soft Target Engineering to Neutralize the Threat Reality)majorTechnology or IntegrationOUP Center of Excellence addressing soft target protection; CREATE serves as Transition Co-Lead for this DHS-funded initiative.
• ADAC-ARCTIC (Arctic Domain Awareness Center)strategicTechnology or IntegrationOUP Center of Excellence focused on Arctic homeland security; CREATE serves as Strategy Director for Technology Transfer and Commercialization.
• STAMINA (S&T Analysis and Management of Innovation Activity)coreTechnology or IntegrationMulti-year DHS S&T contract where CREATE leads research team on analysis and management of innovation activity for homeland security.

Scale indicators3 records

Recent moves7 records

Expansion highlights5 records

Broad incumbents

• Battelle Memorial Institute: Largest nonprofit research organization with significant homeland security and national security portfolios. CREATE's DET tool is used by Battelle National Biodefense Institute, evidencing direct collaboration.
• Argonne National Laboratory: DOE national laboratory with infrastructure resilience, risk analysis, and energy security research that overlaps CREATE's mission on critical infrastructure and energy disruption economics.
• RAND Corporation: Large, established nonprofit research institution with a Homeland Security Research Division that conducts policy analysis, risk assessment, and security economics for federal agencies, directly comparable in customer base and analytical focus.
• MITRE Corporation: Federally funded R&D center operating multiple FFRDCs touching homeland security, defense, and public safety. Comparable as a nonprofit research organization delivering technical analysis and systems engineering to government sponsors.
• SRI International: Independent nonprofit research institute conducting applied research in security, sensing, and analytics for government clients. Comparable scope and federally funded applied research delivery model.
• Sandia National Laboratories: Federally funded national laboratory with major programs in national security risk assessment, infrastructure resilience modeling, and consequence analysis; significant overlap with CREATE's risk modeling capabilities.
• Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA): Federally funded nonprofit delivering scientific, technical, and policy analyses to defense and homeland security sponsors. Comparable analytical rigor, government-only client base, and FFRDC-adjacent operating model.

Direct peers

• Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER): Nonprofit public service research institute providing homeland security, defense, and emergency management analysis to federal agencies. Comparable applied research and analytical services delivery model.
• Center for Homeland Defense and Security (Naval Postgraduate School): DHS-funded institution delivering homeland security education, research, and executive programs. Most direct peer given shared DHS sponsorship, academic homeland security focus, and policy-analyst training mission.
• Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute (HSSAI): Analytic support organization dedicated exclusively to FEMA and DHS for homeland security analysis and decision support, directly comparable as a federally focused homeland security research and analysis provider.

Market position

Strengths5 records

Weaknesses5 records

Competitive moat4 records

Key risks6 records

Key highlights7 records

Customer concentration

• LinkedInlinkedin.com/company/center-for-risk-and-economic-analysis-of-threats-and-emergencies

Revenue estimate

Valuation estimate

Number of profiles

Profiles3 records

Funding overview

Funding rounds

Investors

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M&A

Investments

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Frequently asked questions about Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Threats and Emergencies (CREATE)