Split Ticket
Split Ticket is a U.S. election analysis platform that publishes proprietary quantitative models (WAR, SHAVE, CVI) for congressional races, serving political analysts, journalists, and engaged citizens through its website and media partnerships.
- Company typePrivate
- Founded2021
- HeadquartersLos Altos, United States
- Headcount1–10
- GTM typeB2C
- OfferingDigital Commerce or Content
What Split Ticket does
Split Ticket is a U.S.-based political analysis and election forecasting platform that publishes data-driven quantitative analysis of American elections, with a specialization in House and Senate races. Founded in 2021 and organized as a private Delaware LLC in Los Altos, the company operates a small team (1-10 employees) co-founded by Lakshya Jain, a UC Berkeley-trained computer scientist and software/AI engineer, and Harrison Lavelle. Its core products include the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) database, which quantifies candidate quality by measuring over/underperformance against baselines set by seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and fundraising; the SHAVE generic ballot estimate, which adjusts for uncontested seats to better reflect national partisan mood; and the Congressional Voting Index (CVI), a district-level partisanship metric. The company also publishes election forecast models covering presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial races, and maintains a public data repository.
Underlying the content is a quantitative modeling platform rather than a traditional software product: Split Ticket produces bespoke statistical analyses for each cycle and publishes methodology breakdowns (such as the August 2025 'Deconstructing WAR' article) alongside longitudinal datasets spanning 2016-2024 for congressional races and 2008-2024 for generic ballot estimates. The business model is primarily content-monetization adjacent: the website offers free articles with subscription and donation options, but no formal pricing tiers are disclosed, and no enterprise or B2B contracts are evidenced. Distribution is amplified through established partnerships with The Washington Post and, as of August 2025, an exclusive content arrangement with The Argument podcast, through which the bulk of analysis is now published. The company serves political analysts, campaign operatives, journalists, and engaged citizens, with no disclosed institutional or enterprise customer base, making it a niche editorial-analytics hybrid rather than a venture-scale software business.
Split Ticket firmographics
Firmographics- Name
- Split Ticket
- Legal name
- Split Ticket LLC
- Website
- https://split-ticket.org
- Company type
- Private
- Founded year
- 2021
- Operating status
- Operating
- Headcount range
- 1–10 employees
- Short description
- Split Ticket is a U.S. election analysis platform that publishes proprietary quantitative models (WAR, SHAVE, CVI) for congressional races, serving political analysts, journalists, and engaged citizens through its website and media partnerships.
- Ownership category
- akta.pro rank
Split Ticket industry classification
Industry- Product category
- Political Analysis and Election Forecasting
- NAICS
- Marketing Research and Public Opinion Polling (541910)
- SIC
- Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. (7370)
- akta.pro primary industry
- Electoral Support & Election Observation (BPADAGAA)
Keywords
Where Split Ticket is headquartered
LocationHeadquarters
- HQ city
- Los Altos
- HQ country
- United States
- HQ region
- North America
Markets served
Split Ticket business model
Business model- GTM type
- B2C
- Offering type
- Digital Commerce or Content
- Cost components
- Personnel, Technology or R&D, Marketing or Sales, Operations
Distribution channels1 record
Marketing channels4 records
Split Ticket product offering
Product offeringCore offering
Split Ticket publishes data-driven election analysis and quantitative models for U.S. elections. Its core offerings include the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) database measuring candidate quality in congressional races, the SHAVE House generic ballot estimates, the Congressional Voting Index (CVI) for district partisan lean, and election forecast models covering presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. Content is delivered through articles, visualizations, a data repository, and media partnerships.
Product overview
Split Ticket is an election analysis and forecasting platform that provides data-driven political analysis through quantitative models and databases. The core product portfolio includes the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) database for measuring candidate quality in congressional elections, House Generic Ballot Estimates (SHAVE) for national partisan mood, the Congressional Voting Index (CVI) for district-level partisan lean, and general election forecast models covering presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. The site also maintains a Data Repository for supporting data and visualizations. Split Ticket operates primarily as a content and analysis website rather than a software platform, publishing articles and analysis based on its proprietary modeling methodologies.
Differentiator
Problem solved
Functional benefit
Products and services
- Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Database Quantitative database measuring candidate quality in U.S. congressional elections by calculating how many votes each candidate over or underperformed relative to baseline expectations based on seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and fundraising. Covers House and Senate races from 2016 through 2024.
- House Generic Ballot Estimates (SHAVE) Model that estimates the true national partisan mood by accounting for uncontested House seats, providing a more accurate representation of electoral preferences than simple vote tallies.
- Congressional Voting Index (CVI) Custom metric that gauges each House district's partisan lean using a unique methodology designed to be more representative of the current electoral climate than alternatives such as Cook PVI.
- Election Forecast Models Quantitative forecast models for U.S. presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial elections, including special election analysis and turnout modeling.
- Data Repository Repository of election data, visualizations, and analysis tools that supports Split Ticket's forecasting and research output.
- Split Ticket Email Newsletter Subscription Subscription offering that delivers Split Ticket's analysis articles and provides full archive access to subscribers.
Quantifiable outcome
- WAR models correctly predicted candidate quality differentials across multiple election cycles (2018-2024)
- +1 more outcomes
Companies that use Split Ticket
Customer profileSegments2 records
Ideal customer profiles2 records
Split Ticket technology and API
TechnologyTechnology focussed Yes
API detail
- Has API
- No
- API docs
- API detail
Core technology
AI maturity
App detail
Feature3 records
Split Ticket partnerships and signals
Strategic signalPartnerships
Two partnerships are on record, tiered core.
- The ArgumentcoreExclusive partnership announced in August 2025 where Split Ticket publishes the bulk of its analysis on The Argument platform. Split Ticket's website continues to exist normally, but primary analysis content is now distributed through this partnership.
- Washington PostcoreEstablished partnership for distributing election analysis and forecasting content. Listed as a key project on the Split Ticket website under the Projects section.
Recent moves6 records
Expansion highlights4 records
Split Ticket competitors and assessment
Company assessmentBroad incumbents
- Pew Research Center: Major nonpartisan political polling and research institution producing rigorous methodology on U.S. political attitudes. Comparable methodological depth and modeling approach to Split Ticket, though at much larger scale and broader scope.
- RealClearPolitics: Major political news and polling aggregator with broader news coverage but overlapping election analysis and polling-average products. Larger audience and broader scope than Split Ticket.
- The Argument: Political analysis magazine now serving as Split Ticket's exclusive distribution partner since August 2025. Overlapping editorial scope on elections and political analysis with broader essay-driven coverage.
Direct peers
- Daily Kos Elections: Election analysis and forecasting site with engaged partisan-aligned audience. Comparable product mix of forecasts, race ratings, and explanatory political journalism.
- FiveThirtyEight: The former gold-standard U.S. election forecasting site founded by Nate Silver. Directly comparable as a data-driven election modeling and forecasting outlet serving political professionals and engaged citizens.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball: University of Virginia Center for Politics publication producing election forecasts and analysis. Comparable academic-leaning political analysis with similar scale and rigor to Split Ticket.
- Inside Elections: Election analysis and race ratings publication led by Nathan Gonzales. Directly comparable subscription product targeting political professionals with forecasting content.
- Decision Desk HQ: Election results data and analytics provider serving media outlets, campaigns, and PACs. Comparable in the data/forecasting niche with both editorial and B2B data products.
- Cook Political Report: Long-standing political analysis publisher producing race ratings, the Cook PVI, and forecasts for U.S. federal and state elections. Directly comparable subscription product targeting political professionals.
Emerging players
- Marquette Law School Poll: Academic-affiliated political polling operation focused on Wisconsin and national politics. Comparable in scale to Split Ticket's lean team with similar methodological rigor but different geographic emphasis.
Market position
Strengths5 records
Weaknesses5 records
Competitive moat4 records
Key risks6 records
Key highlights7 records
Customer concentration
Split Ticket social profiles
Digital presenceSplit Ticket financial estimates
Financial estimateRevenue estimate
Valuation estimate
Split Ticket leadership team
Management profileNumber of profiles
Profiles2 records
Split Ticket funding detail
Funding detailFunding overview
Funding rounds
Investors
Funding detail is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →
Split Ticket M&A and investment
M&A and investmentM&A
Investments
M&A and investment is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →
Frequently asked questions about Split Ticket
What does Split Ticket do?
Split Ticket publishes data-driven election analysis and quantitative models for U.S. elections. Its core offerings include the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) database measuring candidate quality in congressional races, the SHAVE House generic ballot estimates, the Congressional Voting Index (CVI) for district partisan lean, and election forecast models covering presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. Content is delivered through articles, visualizations, a data repository, and media partnerships.
Is Split Ticket a public or private company?
Split Ticket is a private company. It is classified as founder individual operated bootstrapped and is currently operating.
When was Split Ticket founded?
Split Ticket was founded in 2021. It employs 1 to 10 people.
Where is Split Ticket based?
Split Ticket is headquartered in Los Altos, United States, in the North America region.
Who are Split Ticket's main competitors?
Broad incumbents on record are Pew Research Center, RealClearPolitics and The Argument. Direct peers are Daily Kos Elections, FiveThirtyEight, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, Decision Desk HQ and Cook Political Report. Marquette Law School Poll is listed as an emerging player.
Does Split Ticket have an API?
No public API is recorded for Split Ticket.
What industry is Split Ticket in?
Split Ticket's product category is Political Analysis and Election Forecasting. Its primary akta.pro industry code is BPADAGAA, Electoral Support & Election Observation. Its NAICS code is 541910 and its SIC code is 7370.