Manifold Markets
Manifold Markets operates the world's largest social prediction market, letting any user create and trade on any question using free play-money (Mana), with optional real USDC prize drawings and adjacent products like Predictle.
- Company typePrivate
- Founded2021
- HeadquartersAustin, United States
- Headcount1–10
- GTM typeB2C
- OfferingSoftware
What Manifold Markets does
Manifold Markets, Inc. is a US-incorporated private company, founded in 2021 and headquartered in Austin, Texas, that operates what it self-describes as the world's largest social prediction market platform. Through its website and mobile application, any individual user can create markets on virtually any question covering politics, technology, sports, AI development, and current events, and trade shares whose prices dynamically adjust to reflect crowd-implied probabilities. The company serves primarily forecasting enthusiasts and the general public — individuals looking for risk-free ways to express and test predictions across topics — with notable activity concentrated in sub-communities organized around AI research, politics, and sports including the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Distribution is fully self-serve and globally accessible with no geographic restrictions.
The core product is a probability market system in which users buy and sell shares, with calibration tracking applied across resolved markets; the company claims forecasts average within roughly four percentage points of true probabilities and that the platform outperformed other prediction market platforms in the 2022 US midterm elections. Supporting products include the Mana (M) virtual currency with which every new user receives M1,000 of free starting balance that cannot be cashed out, the Predictle daily prediction puzzle game, periodic USDC-cryptocurrency prize drawings where no purchase is necessary, and a Mana-themed merchandise shop. The underlying technology stack appears to be a conventional web and mobile application with Firebase-backed storage and no disclosed AI/ML models powering prediction; API and SDK access are not available, and the platform supports only text-based market content. No enterprise tier, partnerships, or formal distribution agreements are disclosed.
Commercially, Manifold operates on a freemium, play-money model where core trading is free and virtual, with the only disclosed revenue-adjacent mechanics being participation around USDC prize drawings and merchandise sales; pricing is not publicly disclosed and the company has named no enterprise customers. The firm is small, with reported headcount of 1–10 employees, and has raised approximately $3 million across two seed-class rounds in early 2022. No subsequent funding events, revenue figures, or valuation disclosures are present in the available data, consistent with a pre-revenue or sub-$1M annual revenue operation.
Manifold Markets firmographics
Firmographics- Name
- Manifold Markets
- Legal name
- Manifold Markets, Inc.
- Website
- https://manifold.markets
- Company type
- Private
- Founded year
- 2021
- Operating status
- Operating
- Headcount range
- 1–10 employees
- Short description
- Manifold Markets operates the world's largest social prediction market, letting any user create and trade on any question using free play-money (Mana), with optional real USDC prize drawings and adjacent products like Predictle.
- Ownership category
- akta.pro rank
Manifold Markets industry classification
Industry- Product category
- Prediction Markets / Social Forecasting Platform
- NAICS
- Securities and Commodity Exchanges (523210), Securities and Commodity Exchanges (52321), Commodity Contracts Intermediation (52316), Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities (523)
- SIC
- Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services (6200), Commodity Contracts Brokers & Dealers (6221)
- akta.pro primary industry
- Prediction Markets & Event-Based On-Chain Trading (FSADABAM)
- akta.pro secondary industry
- Prediction Markets & Event Derivatives (Crypto) (FSADAGAG)
Keywords
Where Manifold Markets is headquartered
LocationHeadquarters
- HQ city
- Austin
- HQ country
- United States
- HQ region
- North America
Markets served
Manifold Markets business model
Business model- GTM type
- B2C
- Offering type
- Software
- Cost components
- Personnel, Technology or R&D, Infrastructure, Marketing or Sales, Operations
Revenue model
- Prize Drawing Entry Fees: While no purchase is necessary to enter prize drawings, the platform generates engagement through periodic USDC prize drawings. The exact monetization mechanism is not explicitly detailed but appears to leverage community engagement and cryptocurrency prizes.
- Prediction Market Trading (Permissive Model): Manifold Markets is described as more permissive than competitors like Kalshi regarding insider trading rules. The platform allows information sharing and insider betting as a feature rather than restricting it.
Pricing tiers
| Model | Billing | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Freemium | Others | Free Play Money Tier |
Go-to-market motion2 records
Distribution channels1 record
Marketing channels4 records
Manifold Markets product offering
Product offeringCore offering
Manifold Markets operates a self-serve web and mobile prediction market platform where any user can create markets on any question and trade shares whose prices function as real-time implied probabilities, using a play-money currency (Mana, Ṁ). Real-money incentives are layered on through periodic USDC cryptocurrency prize drawings and a community-driven ecosystem of forecasting on politics, AI, sports, and culture.
Product overview
Manifold Markets operates as a unified social prediction market platform with several integrated products: the core Manifold Markets platform for creating and trading prediction markets, the Mana (Ṁ) virtual currency system for play-money betting, the Predictle puzzle game, Prize Drawing for USDC crypto prizes, and a Mana Merch Shop. Users start with Ṁ1,000 in free mana to begin trading, while the platform offers real crypto rewards through periodic prize drawings.
Differentiator
Problem solved
Functional benefit
Brands
- Predictle: A daily prediction puzzle game hosted on the Manifold platform. Players predict outcomes of daily questions similar to a word game format.
Products and services
- Manifold Markets (Core Prediction Market Platform) The flagship social prediction market web and mobile platform that enables any user to create a market on any question and trade shares whose prices reflect real-time implied probabilities, covering politics, tech, sports, AI, culture and current events.
- Mana (Ṁ) Play-Money Currency Virtual currency (Ṁ) used by users to buy and sell shares on prediction markets. All new users start with a free Ṁ1,000 balance, enabling risk-free forecasting; the currency cannot be converted to cash.
- Predictle A daily prediction puzzle game on the Manifold platform where players make predictions about daily questions in a word-game-style format.
- Prize Drawing (USDC Crypto Prizes) Periodic prize drawings where eligible Manifold users can win real USDC cryptocurrency payouts; no purchase is necessary and users can claim a free entry once per drawing.
- Mana Merch Shop Branded merchandise store selling items featuring Mana-themed designs to the Manifold Markets community.
Quantifiable outcome
- Forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of true probability
- +1 more outcomes
Companies that use Manifold Markets
Customer profileSegments5 records
Ideal customer profiles3 records
Manifold Markets technology and API
TechnologyTechnology focussed Yes
API detail
- Has API
- No
- API docs
- API detail
Core technology
AI maturity
App detail
AI capability2 records
Feature4 records
Manifold Markets partnerships and signals
Strategic signalScale indicators5 records
Recent moves5 records
Expansion highlights5 records
Manifold Markets competitors and assessment
Company assessmentDirect peers
- Polymarket: Polymarket is the leading crypto-native prediction market for real-money event trading across politics, sports, and culture. Comparable to Manifold on any-topic market creation, category breadth (AI, politics, sports), and global self-serve access, but differentiated by USDC collateral versus Manifold's play-money core.
- Kalshi: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US prediction market exchange offering real-money event contracts on economics, politics, and sports. It is the most relevant regulated peer; Manifold's source data explicitly positions itself relative to Kalshi's stricter insider-trading and regulatory stance.
- PredictIt: PredictIt is an academic-affiliated real-money political prediction market operating in the US. It overlaps Manifold on political forecasting use cases but is narrower (politics only) and more regulatory-constrained, making it a partial direct peer rather than a full substitute.
Emerging players
- Augur: Augur is an Ethereum-based decentralized prediction market protocol for any topic. It shares Manifold's on-chain/crypto-adjacent prediction thesis and broad market creation but is much lower-traffic and more developer-focused, placing it as an emerging peer.
- Gnosis (GnosisDAO / Gnosis Conditional Tokens): Gnosis provides conditional tokens and prediction-market infrastructure used by builders of event markets (e.g., Polymarket historically). It is comparable to Manifold as core prediction-market plumbing rather than a competing end-user product.
- Limitless Exchange: Limitless is a newer crypto prediction market venue with any-topic markets and an on-chain order book. It overlaps Manifold on breadth of topics and self-serve trading, but emphasizes real-money perp-style event contracts over a social play-money core.
- Myriad (Decrypt): Myriad is Decrypt's prediction-market product covering crypto, sports, and culture, integrating prediction markets into a media brand. It is similar to Manifold in social any-topic coverage but uses points/rewards rather than Mana play money.
- Azuro Protocol: Azuro is a decentralized prediction market and sports betting infrastructure protocol. It overlaps Manifold on event-based markets and on-chain execution, primarily in sports, and competes more on B2B liquidity infrastructure than consumer UX.
Broad incumbents
- DraftKings (prediction market product): DraftKings is a major US-regulated sports-betting operator that has launched and expanded into prediction-market style event contracts. It competes for the same user attention and sports-betting wallet share as Manifold's sports markets, but as part of a much larger regulated gaming portfolio.
Others
- Yahoo / FiveThirtyEight (forecast benchmark): FiveThirtyEight is referenced in the source data as the accuracy benchmark Manifold matched in the 2022 US midterms. It is not a direct prediction-market competitor but represents the alternative (poll-aggregator) approach to the same forecasting problem Manifold addresses.
Market position
Strengths5 records
Weaknesses5 records
Competitive moat4 records
Key risks6 records
Key highlights6 records
Customer concentration
Manifold Markets social profiles
Digital presenceManifold Markets financial estimates
Financial estimateRevenue estimate
Valuation estimate
Manifold Markets leadership team
Management profileNumber of profiles
Profiles3 records
Manifold Markets funding detail
Funding detailFunding overview
Funding rounds2 records
Investors3 records
Funding detail is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →
Manifold Markets M&A and investment
M&A and investmentM&A
Investments
M&A and investment is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →
Frequently asked questions about Manifold Markets
What does Manifold Markets do?
Manifold Markets operates a self-serve web and mobile prediction market platform where any user can create markets on any question and trade shares whose prices function as real-time implied probabilities, using a play-money currency (Mana, Ṁ). Real-money incentives are layered on through periodic USDC cryptocurrency prize drawings and a community-driven ecosystem of forecasting on politics, AI, sports, and culture.
Is Manifold Markets a public or private company?
Manifold Markets is a private company. It is classified as venture growth investor backed and is currently operating.
When was Manifold Markets founded?
Manifold Markets was founded in 2021. It employs 1 to 10 people.
Where is Manifold Markets based?
Manifold Markets is headquartered in Austin, United States, in the North America region.
How does Manifold Markets make money?
Two revenue lines are on record. Prize Drawing Entry Fees are the primary driver. The others are prediction Market Trading (Permissive Model).
Who are Manifold Markets's main competitors?
Direct peers on record are Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Emerging players are Augur, Gnosis (GnosisDAO / Gnosis Conditional Tokens), Limitless Exchange, Myriad (Decrypt) and Azuro Protocol. DraftKings (prediction market product) is listed as a broad incumbent. Yahoo / FiveThirtyEight (forecast benchmark) is listed as an others.
Does Manifold Markets have an API?
No public API is recorded for Manifold Markets.
What industry is Manifold Markets in?
Manifold Markets's product category is Prediction Markets / Social Forecasting Platform. Its primary akta.pro industry code is FSADABAM, Prediction Markets & Event-Based On-Chain Trading, with a secondary code of FSADAGAG, Prediction Markets & Event Derivatives (Crypto). Its NAICS code is 523210 and its SIC code is 6200.