What Probability does

Probability is a New York-based, full-service promotions agency that creates and manages sweepstakes, contests, and games for enterprise brands. The company operates across six core service verticals: Legal & Admin (official rules, regulatory compliance, bonding, international legal guidance and translations), Creative & Digital (in-house studio producing custom-built and templated campaign sites, hosting, and social media), Prize Fulfillment (winner verification, affidavits and background screenings, procurement, shipping, and tax reporting), and Digital Marketing & Amplification. Underpinning the service business are three proprietary in-house technology modules: an Instant Win Gaming algorithm that randomly awards prizes over time with real-time reporting, a Contest Judging & Moderation tool that supports custom weighted scoring criteria, and a Fraud Intelligence system that monitors entries in real time, flags suspicious activity (including repeated IP addresses), and disqualifies illegitimate entries. In 2024 the firm administered approximately 200 separate promotions, built and hosted more than 60 campaign websites, and collected millions of verified opt-in entrants.

The agency generates revenue as a professional services organization with quote-based, project-specific pricing tied to campaign scope, complexity, prize values, international reach, and the service verticals engaged. Go-to-market is sales-led and direct: Probability targets brand marketers and media buyers through its website, a 'Let's Talk' consultation form, content marketing via the 'The Odds' blog, and LinkedIn-driven brand presence. Customers are predominantly large enterprise brand marketers (Disney, Netflix, Paramount Pictures, Warner Bros., Uber, Kohl's, PRIME, CVS Pharmacy, ABC, Molson Coors, The North Face, CrunchLabs), with a strong repeat-engagement pattern — Disney, for example, has deployed Probability across the D23 Ultimate Disney Sweepstakes, shopDisney Unlock the Magic Giveaway, and Mary Poppins Returns Contest. Probability operates from a New York headquarters and serves brands across the US, Canada, the UK, Australia, and multiple Central American and Caribbean markets, supported by a leadership team built around founder-CEO Dan Jahn. The company is privately held, structured as Probability LLC, and was recognized as a Chief Marketer Top Agency of the Year 2025 across Event/Experiential, Digital, and Data & Measurement categories.

The business model is a vertically integrated agency-plus-technology model: human services (creative, legal, fulfillment, marketing) combined with proprietary software tooling embedded into the service delivery. This structure produces revenue through full-service campaign fees rather than software licensing, with the proprietary tools acting as margin and quality differentiators rather than standalone products. Geographic expansion is occurring primarily through clients running multi-market programs (e.g., Coors Light Explorers across Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Panama, and Puerto Rico). Headcount is disclosed only in band form (11-50 employees), with approximately 15 named team members visible on the public team page.

Name

Probability

Legal name

Probability LLC

Website

https://probabilityworks.com

Company type

Private

Founded year

2021

Operating status

Operating

Headcount range

11–50 employees

Short description

Probability is a New York-based, full-service promotions agency that creates and manages sweepstakes, contests, and instant-win games for enterprise brands including Disney, Netflix, Uber, PRIME, CVS, and Kohl's, combining legal/compliance, creative, digital, and prize-fulfillment services with proprietary in-house tooling.

Ownership category

akta.pro rank

Headquarters

HQ city

New York

HQ country

United States

HQ region

North America

Offices2 records

Markets served

GTM type

B2B

Offering type

Services

Cost components

Personnel, Technology or R&D, Operations, Marketing or Sales

Revenue model

1. Promotional Campaign Services: Full-service agency providing end-to-end sweepstakes, contest, and game campaign management including strategy, creative development, legal compliance, technology hosting, and prize fulfillment
2. Technology Licensing/Tools: Proprietary tools for instant win gaming, contest judging, and fraud detection available as part of campaign services

Go-to-market motion1 record

Distribution channels1 record

Marketing channels5 records

Core offering

Probability is a full-service promotions agency that designs, builds, and runs sweepstakes, contests, and instant win games on behalf of enterprise brands. Deliverables span campaign strategy, official rules and legal compliance (US and international), creative and digital site production, technology hosting through proprietary instant win, judging, and fraud tools, and end-to-end prize fulfillment including winner verification, affidavits, tax reporting, and customer service.

Product overview

Probability is a full-service promotions agency that creates and manages sweepstakes, contests, and games for leading brands. The company operates a platform of three proprietary technology tools — Instant Win Gaming Tools (built on a proprietary algorithm for random prize distribution), Contest Judging & Moderation Tool (for custom weighted judging criteria), and Fraud Intelligence (real-time entry monitoring and disqualification) — complemented by six core service verticals: Legal & Admin (official rules, compliance, bonding, international legal guidance), Creative & Digital (custom-built sites, templated sites, social media), Prize Fulfillment (winner selection, tax reporting, customer service), Digital Marketing & Amplification, and specialized campaign categories (Sweepstakes, Contests & Games, Social Media, Causes & Rebates, International). The agency also maintains an insights blog (The Odds) covering industry trends.

Differentiator

Problem solved

Functional benefit

Products and services

• Instant Win Gaming Tools Proprietary algorithm-based system that intelligently and randomly awards prizes over time, with real-time reports to monitor winners and prize attribution. Sold to enterprise brand clients as part of Probability's promotional campaign services.
• Contest Judging & Moderation Tool Moderation tool that allows users to create custom, weighted criteria and judge promotion entries fairly, accurately, and efficiently. Offered as part of Probability's campaign execution stack.
• Fraud Intelligence Intelligent, real-time entry monitoring tool that analyzes entries, flags suspicious behavior such as repeated entries from the same IP address, and disqualifies illegitimate entries to ensure verified, accurate winner data. Delivered as part of Probability's campaign services.
• Sweepstakes Campaigns End-to-end design, legal administration, hosting, and fulfillment of consumer sweepstakes for leading brands, executed by Probability's full-service promotions team.
• Contests & Instant Win Games Contest and instant win game campaign management, including weighted-criteria judging, real-time prize distribution through Probability's proprietary instant win algorithm, and end-to-end fulfillment.
• Legal & Admin Services Promotion expert services covering official rules, legal compliance, bonding and registration, insurance and indemnification, random drawings, judging and moderation, and international legal guidance and translations. Backed by 25+ years of team experience.
• Creative & Digital Services In-house digital marketing studio providing tailored creative teams, custom-built and templated campaign sites, analytics and insights, website hosting, and social media management for promotional campaigns.
• Prize Fulfillment Services End-to-end winner notification and verification, affidavits and background screenings, prize procurement, storage and shipping, trip fulfillment, tax reporting, and customer service administration.
• Digital Marketing & Amplification In-house digital marketing team providing short- and long-term campaigns that amplify brand promotions with real-time results and reporting.

Quantifiable outcome

• Over 200 promotions administered and 60+ campaign websites built and hosted in 2024 alone
• +3 more outcomes

Named customers12 records

Segments1 record

Ideal customer profiles1 record

Technology focussed Yes

API detail

Has API

No

API docs

API detail

Core technology

AI maturity

App detail

Feature3 records

Scale indicators4 records

Recent moves6 records

Expansion highlights5 records

Direct peers

• Marden-Kane: Long-standing sweepstakes, contest, and game promotions agency serving enterprise brands with full-service campaign management — directly comparable to Probability's core offering.
• Marketing Architects: Full-service promotional agency specializing in consumer promotions, sweepstakes, and contest management for major brands — directly overlapping Probability's sweepstakes and instant win capabilities.
• HelloWorld (formerly ePrize): Digital promotions, sweepstakes, and loyalty platform serving enterprise marketers — directly comparable in instant win and contest judging tooling and B2B services model.
• Ryan Partnership (Advantage Solutions): Established shopper marketing and promotional campaigns agency within Advantage Solutions — directly comparable full-service promotions and sweepstakes execution capability.
• Inmar: Operator of promotions, loyalty, and shopper marketing solutions for CPG brands and retailers — overlaps Probability's prize fulfillment, compliance, and first-party data positioning.
• Catalyit (formerly Brierley): Customer loyalty and promotional campaign agency serving enterprise brands — directly comparable end-to-end campaign management and prize fulfillment services.
• Quotient Technology (Neptune Retail Solutions): Digital promotions and shopper data platform serving major CPG and retail brands — directly comparable in couponing, sweepstakes, and first-party data accumulation.

Emerging players

• Snipp: Receipt-activated promotions and loyalty platform with sweepstakes/contest capabilities — emerging peer with overlapping instant win and contest mechanics for CPG/retail clients.

Broad incumbents

• Accenture Song: Global marketing services arm of Accenture offering end-to-end campaign execution including promotions and loyalty — broad incumbent that competes for the same enterprise client wallet.
• Deloitte Digital: Consulting-led marketing and customer experience practice with promotions and CRM execution capabilities — broad incumbent able to bundle promotional campaigns into larger transformation engagements.

Market position

Strengths5 records

Weaknesses5 records

Competitive moat4 records

Key risks6 records

Key highlights7 records

Customer concentration

• LinkedInlinkedin.com/company/probability

Revenue estimate

Valuation estimate

Number of profiles

Profiles10 records

Funding overview

Funding rounds

Investors

Funding detail is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →

M&A

Investments

M&A and investment is available on the Subscription and Enterprise plan.Contact sales →

Frequently asked questions about Probability