Climate Futures

What Climate Futures does

Climate Futures is a Centre for Research-based Innovation (SFI) headquartered in Bergen, Norway, at NORCE, launched on October 1, 2020 under Research Council of Norway project number 309562. The organisation develops climate prediction tools covering the subseasonal-to-decadal time horizon (10 days to 10 years), addressing the gap between short-range weather forecasts and long-range climate projections. Its core technology combines the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM), which links the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) with data assimilation of historical ocean observations, alongside multi-model ensembles from ECMWF, Met Office, CMCC, Météo France, and DWD, statistical post-processing, and machine learning for sector-specific applications such as river water-level forecasting, frost prediction, and hydropower flow estimation.

The centre operates across four innovation areas — Smart Shipping, Renewable Energy, Sustainable Food Production, and Resilient Societies — and collaborates with nearly 40 partners including Statkraft, Tryg, KLP, Norges Bondelag, Western Bulk, Agder Energi, Eviny, Graminor, Gartnerhallen, Eide Fjordbruk, the Norwegian Environment Agency, and Statistics Norway. Research is delivered by an alliance of five research partners: NORCE, the University of Bergen (anchored at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research), the Norwegian School of Economics (NHH), the Norwegian Computing Centre (NR), and MET Norway. Outputs include probability-based seasonal forecasts distributed via the public klimavarsling.no portal, monthly forecasts for ~1,000 farmers via MailChimp, scientific publications, master's and PhD theses, and partner-specific pilot projects (~29 total).

Climate Futures is a non-profit research consortium rather than a commercial enterprise. Its primary funding is the 5-year Research Council of Norway SFI grant; additional funding comes from the Trond Mohn Foundation (co-funding the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit) and EU Horizon 2020 (CONFER project in East Africa). Activities are conducted through collaborative research partnerships with industry and public sector organisations at no cost to partners, and the centre has no pricing model, no commercial product sales, and no equity structure. Climate Futures operates as part of NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS.

Name

Climate Futures

Legal name

Climate Futures

Website

https://climatefutures.no

Company type

Private

Founded year

2020

Operating status

Operating

Headcount range

51–100 employees

Short description

Climate Futures is a Norway-based, publicly funded Centre for Research-based Innovation (SFI) developing subseasonal-to-decadal climate prediction tools (10 days to 10 years) for partners in renewable energy, agriculture, shipping, insurance, and public-sector climate risk management.

Ownership category

akta.pro rank

Product category

Climate Prediction Services

NAICS

Scientific Research and Development Services (5417)

akta.pro primary industry

Downscaled Climate Projections & Scenario Analytics (CMIP, SSP/RCP, Regionalization) (EUABALAB)

akta.pro secondary industries

Climate Hazard & Catastrophe Modeling (Flood, Wind, Wildfire, Heat, Sea-Level Rise) (EUABALAA), Early Warning, Event Monitoring & Forecasting (Extreme Weather Alerts, Nowcasting) (EUABALAJ), Scenario Planning, Forecasting Platforms & Planning Intelligence (HDAAAHAL)

Keywords

• Climate prediction services
• Subseasonal-to-decadal forecasting
• Climate risk management
• Renewable energy forecasting
• Agricultural climate services

Headquarters

HQ city

Bergen

HQ country

Norway

HQ region

Europe

Offices1 record

Markets served

GTM type

B2B

Offering type

Software

Cost components

Personnel, Technology or R&D, Operations, Infrastructure, Marketing or Sales

Revenue model

1. Research Council of Norway SFI Funding: Climate Futures is a Centre for Research-based Innovation (SFI) funded by the Research Council of Norway under project number 309562. The centre was launched on October 1, 2020. This is the primary source of funding and there is no commercial revenue model.

Distribution channels2 records

Marketing channels6 records

Core offering

Climate Futures develops probabilistic climate forecasts spanning 10 days to 10 years, using numerical weather prediction models, data assimilation, statistical methods, and machine learning. Outputs are delivered through the public klimavarsling.no portal and through collaborative research projects with industry and public sector partners across renewable energy, agriculture, shipping, and insurance. The center does not sell products or services commercially; activities are conducted through research partnerships funded primarily by the Research Council of Norway.

Product overview

Climate Futures is a Centre for Research-based Innovation developing climate prediction services for managing climate risk across multiple sectors. The core offering consists of long-term climate forecasts spanning 10 days to 10 years, delivered through the klimavarsling.no platform and sector-specific applications. The portfolio includes seasonal and monthly probability forecasts, supported by specialized prediction systems like NorCPM (Norwegian Climate Prediction Model) and the Seasonal Forecasting Engine (SFE). Services target agriculture (frost prediction, drought forecasts), renewable energy (hydropower planning, wind/solar forecasting), shipping (fuel consumption, river water levels), and insurance (climate risk pricing). Cross-cutting initiatives include the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit (BCPU) for decadal forecasting and CONFER for East African climate services.

Differentiator

Problem solved

Functional benefit

Products and services

• Climate Futures Seasonal Forecasts Monthly probabilistic forecasts for temperature and precipitation anomalies covering 10 days to 5 months ahead, used by partners across agriculture, energy, shipping, and insurance sectors.
• klimavarsling.no

Quantifiable outcome

• Drought summer 2018 caused 2 billion NOK in climate damage compensation to Norwegian agriculture. Climate Futures aims to prevent similar losses by enabling earlier, more actionable climate warnings.
• +2 more outcomes

Named customers11 records

Segments5 records

Ideal customer profiles4 records

Technology focussed Yes

API detail

Has API

No

API docs

API detail

Core technology

AI maturity

App detail

AI capability11 records

Feature6 records

Partnerships

25 partnerships are on record, tiered core, major and minor.

• NORCE Norwegian Research CentrecoreStrategic or Co-development Partner · 1 October 2020NORCE is the host institution and 'home base' of Climate Futures, providing office facilities and administrative infrastructure. NORCE researchers lead the centre's research activities across all four innovation nodes. Erik Kolstad and Øyvind Paasche are key researchers from NORCE involved in the centre.
• University of Bergen (UiB)coreStrategic or Co-development Partner · 1 October 2020The Climate Futures alliance was formed with a basis in the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research at UiB. UiB researchers contribute to climate prediction science and the centre's academic outputs.
• Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)coreStrategic or Co-development Partner · 1 October 2020NHH contributes economic expertise and conducts research on climate risk management, shipping economics, and the economic value of climate forecasts. NHH students produce master's theses in collaboration with Climate Futures.
• Norwegian Computing Centre (NR)coreStrategic or Co-development Partner · 1 October 2020NR contributes statistical modelling, machine learning, and ICT expertise. NR develops the frost forecast model using lifetime analysis, evaluates forecast skill for Statkraft, and develops machine learning tools for Climate Futures.
• MET Norway (Meteorological Institute)coreStrategic or Co-development Partner · 1 October 2020MET Norway provides meteorological expertise and operational weather/climate data as a core research partner in Climate Futures.
• StatkraftcoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerEurope's largest renewable energy provider, producing hydropower, wind, solar, and gas power. Partner in the Renewable Energy node, using seasonal forecasts for hydropower production planning, water reservoir management, and electricity price forecasting. Collaboration with NR evaluates long-term forecast skill.
• Agder EnergimajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerEnergy company represented in the Renewable Energy node, using climate forecasts for hydropower planning and infrastructure decisions.
• EvinymajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerEnergy company in the Renewable Energy node, using climate forecasts for hydropower and expanding power grid infrastructure.
• Norges BondelagmajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerRepresents over 61,000 Norwegian farmers. Partner in the Sustainable Food Production node, providing input on agricultural climate risk and testing climate forecast applications.
• GraminormajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerDevelops plant varieties adapted to Norwegian conditions. Partner in Sustainable Food Production node, collaborating with NR to model future potato varieties using climate projections from Climate Futures.
• GartnerhallenmajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerLargest distributor of Norwegian fruit, berries, vegetables, and potatoes. Partner in Sustainable Food Production node, collaborating on frost forecasting pilot project with NR.
• Norsk LandbruksrådgivningminorStrategic or Co-development PartnerAgricultural advisory service with experience connecting research networks with users. Contributes to Sustainable Food Production node by bridging Climate Futures research with farmer communities.
• TrygcoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerLargest insurance company in the Nordic countries. Partner in the Resilient Societies node, using climate forecasts for insurance pricing and preventive climate risk measures.
• KLPcoreStrategic or Co-development PartnerInsures all municipalities in Norway and is Norway's largest life insurance company. Partner in Resilient Societies node, co-organising Den Lille Store Utslippsdagen event with Climate Futures.
• Norwegian Environment Agency (Miljødirektoratet)majorStrategic or Co-development PartnerPublic sector partner in Resilient Societies node, contributing to climate risk management and climate adaptation planning for Norway.
• Statistics Norway (SSB)majorStrategic or Co-development PartnerPublic sector partner in Resilient Societies node, contributing data and expertise on climate risk statistics and Norwegian emissions data.
• SafetecminorStrategic or Co-development PartnerPrivate risk management company delivering and developing risk management services. Partner in Resilient Societies node.
• Havforskningsinstituttet (Institute of Marine Research)majorStrategic or Co-development PartnerOne of Europe's largest marine research institutes, conducting research, consultancy, and monitoring. Partner in Sustainable Food Production node's aquaculture section.
• Eide FjordbrukminorStrategic or Co-development PartnerFish farming company aiming to develop production aligned with UN sustainability goals. Partner in Sustainable Food Production node's aquaculture section.
• Searis (Clarify)minorStrategic or Co-development PartnerTechnology company developing AI software to organise, explore, and visualise large data sets in real time to help businesses make informed decisions. Partner in aquaculture section.
• Western BulkmajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerShipping company using Climate Futures climate forecasts to predict water levels in the Paraná River for grain cargo planning. Master's thesis collaboration with NHH under Smart Shipping node.
• Seasonal Forecasting Engine (SFE) ProjectmajorStrategic or Co-development PartnerA 5-year project funded by the Research Council of Norway developing a state-of-the-art seasonal climate prediction system for Northern Europe and the Arctic. Provides Climate Futures with forecasting infrastructure and methodology.
• Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit (BCPU)majorStrategic or Co-development PartnerA 5-year project funded by Trond Mohn Stiftelsen and University of Bergen, focused on improving climate predictions from seasonal to decadal scale for the Atlantic-to-Arctic sector.
• CONFER (EU Horizon 2020)majorStrategic or Co-development PartnerEU-funded multinational collaboration to strengthen resilience to climate impacts in East Africa, potentially reaching 365 million people in 11 countries. Led by Erik Kolstad at NORCE. Develops climate services for water, energy, and food security.
• County Councils (Rogaland, Vestland, Viken)minorStrategic or Co-development PartnerThree Norwegian county councils are public sector partners in Resilient Societies and Sustainable Food Production nodes, contributing to climate adaptation planning at regional level.

Scale indicators5 records

Recent moves8 records

Expansion highlights5 records

Direct peers

• Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research: Climate Futures was formed with a basis in the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research at UiB. Bjerknes is a leading climate science research consortium in Bergen, with overlapping leadership, climate prediction research agenda, and partner ecosystem. Most directly comparable peer given shared origins and mandate.
• NORCE Norwegian Research Centre: NORCE is the host institution and 'home base' of Climate Futures, with Climate department researchers (Øyvind Paasche, Erik Kolstad, Tarje Iversen Wanvik) embedded across both organisations. Same parent entity, overlapping research agenda in climate, climate risk, and applied prediction.

Broad incumbents

• ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts): ECMWF is the global leader in numerical weather prediction and one of Climate Futures' primary data sources (multi-model ensemble). Operates Copernicus Climate Change Service and produces comparable seasonal forecasts (System5), but at global scale and as a public intergovernmental organisation.
• Met Office Hadley Centre: The UK's climate modelling centre, also a data source for Climate Futures' multi-model ensemble. Operates the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) programme and produces seasonal-to-decadal forecasts comparable in scope to NorCPM, but at national scale for the UK.
• Max Planck Institute for Meteorology: Leading European climate research institute developing Earth system models (MPI-ESM, ICON). Comparable as a peer-tier climate modelling research organisation, though with a focus on fundamental climate science rather than sectoral prediction products.
• DTN: Established commercial provider of weather, climate, and agricultural intelligence, serving energy, agriculture, and shipping industries with operational decision-support tools. Comparable in target sectors (energy, agriculture, shipping) and decision-support use cases, but operates as a commercial enterprise with subscription pricing.

Regional players

• SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute): Sweden's national meteorological and hydrological service, producing Nordic climate services and hydrological forecasts. Comparable as a Nordic public-sector climate/hydrology prediction provider, though operating across a different national jurisdiction than Climate Futures.
• Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI): Finland's national meteorological institute producing climate projections and services for Nordic conditions. Comparable as a peer Nordic national climate service provider with overlapping sectoral applications (agriculture, energy, insurance).

Emerging players

• Jupiter Intelligence: Commercial climate risk analytics company providing physical climate risk scoring, asset-level exposure modelling, and forward-looking climate projections for enterprise customers. Comparable as a climate risk analytics platform targeting enterprise clients, but operates as a commercial entity with a paid software model.
• Cervest: Commercial climate risk intelligence platform offering probabilistic climate-driven risk assessments for assets and supply chains. Comparable in addressing enterprise climate risk decision-making, but with a SaaS commercial model and global asset-level focus.

Market position

Strengths5 records

Weaknesses5 records

Competitive moat6 records

Key risks6 records

Key highlights7 records

Customer concentration

• LinkedInlinkedin.com/company/climate-futures-sfi
• Xx.com/climate_sfi

Revenue estimate

Valuation estimate

Number of profiles

Profiles7 records

Funding overview

Funding rounds

Investors

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M&A

Investments

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Frequently asked questions about Climate Futures